Severe Storm Risk - Halifax, NC

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS SUMMARY Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds should occur this afternoon/evening across parts of the central Appalachians into southern Virginia and the Carolinas. Isolated large hail and severe winds may also occur over parts of the northern/central Plains through tonight. Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas An earlier MCS across the OH Valley has weakened as it crossed/moved eastward over the central Appalachians. The strongest remaining convective segment is ongoing late this morning across parts of southwest VA/northeast TN. Robust destabilization is expected to continue this afternoon downstream of this activity across southern VA into the Carolinas, with MLCAPE peaking around 2500-3500 J/kg over central/eastern NC. This region will be on the southern periphery of modestly enhanced mid-level west-northwesterly flow, and sufficient deep-layer shear will be present to maintain some convective organization. Current expectations are for one or more thunderstorm clusters to gradually increase in intensity this afternoon as they spread eastward across southern VA and central/eastern NC, with some uncertainty whether the ongoing convection will restrengthen, or if new development will occur along its outflow. Regardless, latest guidance and observational trends still suggest that a relatively greater threat for damaging winds should exist this afternoon across central/eastern NC and vicinity, where the greatest thunderstorm coverage, maxima in MLCAPE/DCAPE, and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast. Have therefore introduced higher severe wind probabilities (30% area) across this region. Isolated hail may also occur with the strongest cores that can develop, although mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain rather poor. Severe potential should gradually wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as convection moves offshore. Farther west, outflow from the morning thunderstorms may serve as a focus for renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon from parts of the OH Valley southeastward into the TN Valley. This region will be displaced from the stronger flow aloft present over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, with weak deep-layer shear expected. Still, some risk for isolated damaging winds may exist with any loosely organized cells/clusters that can develop given the presence of moderate to locally strong instability. Northern/Central Plains A highly amplified mid/upper-level ridge will remain anchored over the central CONUS into south-central Canada through the period, with generally neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights expected over the northern/central Plains. Ongoing elevated cells across northern ND may continue to pose an isolated severe hail threat in the short term, but weakening low-level warm advection should tend to result in a further decrease in intensity with this activity. Otherwise, additional isolated to perhaps widely scattered high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon along/east of a surface lee trough over the northern/central Plains. While mid-level flow and related effective bulk shear should remain weak, occasional severe gusts may still occur with convective downdrafts given a well-mixed boundary layer. Some risk for hail and gusty winds may also exist with elevated convection that should eventually develop tonight into early Sunday morning in a renewed/modest low-level warm advection regime. Western Montana To the east of a closed mid-level low over WA/OR, a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper-level winds will extend across the northern Rockies. Gradually increasing moisture and large-scale ascent aloft associated with a weak/embedded shortwave trough are expected to support an increase in isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Lapse rates through low/mid levels will be steep with strong deep-layer shear present, but modest low-level moisture should limit MLCAPE to generally less than 500 J/kg. The potential for severe wind gusts still appears too low to justify including 5% wind probabilities at this time.