Severe Storm Risk - Hendersonville, TN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE SUMMARY Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. Northeast TX into the Mid-South Radar mosaic shows an MCV moving east across far western KY with a band of weak thunderstorms extending south and west across western TN. Convective outflow associated with the showers/thunderstorms extends from east-west near I-40 across AR into eastern OK where it intersects a triple point over central OK. A cold front is draped southwest to northeast along the I-44 corridor from western north TX northeastward into the Ozarks. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows extensive cloud cover from northeast TX northeastward into AR and the lower OH Valley. A plume of richer moisture at the surface is denoted by mid to upper 60s deg F dewpoints protruding north from east-central TX into north TX and southeast OK. Further moistening of low levels via southerly return flow is forecast beneath a capping inversion around 850 mb sampled by the 12 UTC Forth Worth, TX raob. Gradual boundary layer heating will result in surface temperatures warming into the upper 80s over north TX with muted heating farther northeast over AR where persistent cloud cover will inhibit stronger heating. Model guidance shows MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg from northeast AR southwestward into southwest AR, and upwards of 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across north TX by mid-late afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are anticipated. However, thinning clouds near the OK/AR border and the erosion of convective inhibition as convective temperatures are breached over north TX will result in isolated to scattered storms developing during 20-23 UTC period. Initial supercell mode is forecast over north TX with some clustering expected during the evening. The tornado risk over north TX will likely be limited by relatively weak low-level shear but strong mid to high-level flow will promote large to very large hail growth (1 to 3 inches in diameter). Farther northeast, isolated to scattered storms are forecast to develop east of the eastward-migrating surface low and near the front by the mid-late afternoon. HRRR time-lagged runs this morning show a few supercells with one more longer track storms moving developing and moving east across central AR in a larger SRH environment. An all hazards severe risk may accompany the stronger storms in AR beginning later this afternoon and possibly persisting through the evening as this activity moves east towards the MS River. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Upscale growth into a cluster or band of storms is expected as moderately strong southwesterly 850 to 700-mb flow is maintained across the Mid South. Damaging gusts and perhaps a lingering tornado risk will possibly spread east tonight before storms weaken late. Lower Great Lakes into northern New England A marginally moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME. Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized storms. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the boundary, with linear structures favored. Damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.