Severe Storm Risk - Hepzibah, WV

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUMMARY Clusters of storms will continue to move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail. 20Z Update A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured 50+ kt gusts and wind damage, continues to rapidly propagate eastward across central MO. While deep-layer shear is quite modest over the Ozarks, a pronounced baroclinic boundary is draped across central MO into the St. Louis Metropolitan area. The MCS has likely maintained its intensity thus far by riding this boundary and ingesting some vorticity for bookend vortex and rear-inflow jet maintenance. It is unclear how long this MCS will remain strong/organized given the lack of ambient deep-layer shear. However. surface temperatures on the warm side of the boundary exceeding 90 F, amid mid 70s F dewpoints, is yielding a gradient of 2500-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, which should support some severe gust threat for this MCS for at least the next few hours. As such, 30 percent wind probabilities have been added ahead of the MCS. Guidance consensus, including early depictions from WoFS output, suggests that an MCS will quickly surge southeastward across portions of the southern Plains after initiating along the KS/OK border late this afternoon. The farther southeast initiation (given the current position of the surface outflow boundary left behind from the previous MCS), and southeastward surging potential, it appears that the greatest wind threat will exist into east-central OK. 30 percent/CIG1 wind probabilities have been extended into this region. Five percent hail probabilities have been added across portions of the lower Hudson Valley. Here, MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that marginally severe hail may already be falling with the more robust storms over northern PA. Furthermore, stronger mid-level flow is grazing the lower Hudson Valley, contributing to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear amid 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which should be adequate to support a continued hail threat. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, including the potential for numerous damaging to occasionally severe gusts expected across portions of the Mid Atlantic into southern New England through the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly minor adjustments have been made to the remainder of the outlook to account for guidance consensus and observations.