Severe Storm Risk - Hilliard, OH

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA INTO WEST/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SUMMARY A few tornadoes and isolated very large hail are possible late this afternoon and evening across northern Missouri into southern Iowa and north-central Illinois with any sustained supercells that develop. Storms are otherwise expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. Northern Missouri/southern Iowa/north-central Illinois The shortwave trough emerging from the north-central High Plains this morning will spread east-northeastward toward the Upper Midwest through early Saturday. This will be accompanied by a strengthening (70+ kt) belt of cyclonically curved mid/high-level westerlies. A surface low across the south-central Plains will transition northeastward toward the Iowa/Illinois border vicinity tonight, while a warm front shifts northward from northern Missouri into Iowa and across northern portions of Illinois/Indiana, where low/middle 60s F dewpoints will become common across the Midwest near and south of the warm front. Within the warm sector, residually steep mid-level lapse rates and modest insolation will contribute to MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg (and MUCAPE values approach 3000 J/kg). Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells along and south of the warm front and east of the Pacific cold front/dryline. While the likelihood/extent of semi-discrete supercellular development remains a bit uncertain, the main potential for such will increase during the afternoon near the triple point around the Kansas/Missouri/Iowa border vicinity and eastward, potentially as far east into western/north-central Illinois in vicinity of the northward-shifting warm front. Semi-discrete development would offer tornado/very large hail potential, as well as a possible multi-round scenario of severe storms in some of this corridor via a more prevalent line of storms during the evening, with a damaging wind risk and some continued tornado potential as the low-level restrengthens. Northern Indiana to western portions of Pennsylvania/New York Relatively strong westerlies atop the frontal zone, which will be more southeast-progressive as a cold front with eastward extent, will support at least isolated severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into evening, including a few supercells regionally. Southeast Kansas/Southwest Missouri to Northwest Texas Thunderstorms will develop southward from northern Missouri into Oklahoma during the afternoon as the Pacific cold front/dryline advances southeastward into an increasingly unstable airmass. At the same time, additional thunderstorms are likely to develop across Northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma in association with a subtle perturbation within the subtropical jet. Forecast wind fields indicate low-level flow will be weaker here than areas farther north and east. The combination of this wind field and the widespread nature of the convection would lend itself to large hail and damaging winds as the main severe hazards, although a tornado could occur with any discrete storm or along the leading edge of any organized linear segments. Southwest Texas Isolated thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon and early evening in vicinity of the dry line and near some of the mountains/higher terrain. Wind fields will support supercells capable of producing large hail and localized severe-caliber winds.