Severe Storm Risk - Hillsdale, WY

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the central Plains vicinity this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, severe winds (some 75+ mph), and tornadoes are possible. Central Plains A low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Intermountain West toward the central/northern High Plains through the period. In response to this system, a lee cyclone is forecast to deepen across eastern CO. A surface front initially draped from eastern CO into KS will move northward through the day, with its northward extent influenced by morning elevated convection that may persist through much of the day across parts of central NE. Rich low-level moisture will return in tandem with the front, with low/mid 60s F dewpoints reaching into parts of southern NE and northeast CO, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints spreading into parts of central/southeast KS. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates spreading atop the returning moisture will result in moderate to strong destabilization, as MLCAPE increases to near/above 2000 J/kg across parts of the central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon from southeast WY and the NE Panhandle into eastern CO, with at least isolated storms possible farther east, along and just north of the surface front. Veering wind profiles and effective shear of 40+ kt will be favorable for organized storms, including supercells. A threat for large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany initial supercell development. Some tornado threat could also evolve, especially with any supercells near the front that move into an environment of richer moisture and stronger low-level shear (associated with a modest nocturnal low-level jet) during the evening. A tendency toward upscale growth is expected with time along and north of the surface front, resulting in an increasing severe-wind threat, with gusts above 75 mph possible. Some damaging-wind and brief-tornado threat could continue through the end of the period into east-central/southeast KS, where MLCINH will remain minimal due to very rich low-level moisture. Only minor adjustments have been made to the Enhanced Risk, though more substantial changes may eventually be needed, depending on the influence of early-day convection across parts of the threat area. Northern UT/southeast ID into western/central WY As a mid/upper-level shortwave trough overspreads the region during the afternoon, scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected from northeast UT/southeast ID into western WY. Isolated downbursts will be possible with initial development, and some outflow aggregation could result in localized strong to severe wind swaths from late afternoon into early evening, as convection spreads eastward. Parts of TX into the Southeast and Florida Scattered to widespread convection is again expected within a very moist (PW near/above 2 inches) environment from central/eastern TX into parts of the Southeast and Florida. Localized wet microbursts will again be possible, though deep-layer shear will generally be weak. Organized severe potential appears too nebulous to add wind probabilities at this time. A Level-1/Marginal Risk may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if trends support any mesoscale corridors of somewhat more organized threat. Western PA Relatively low-topped convection may develop across parts of western PA and vicinity this afternoon, within a broad west-northwesterly flow regime. Buoyancy will remain weak, but modestly enhanced flow and steep low-level lapse rates could support localized strong gusts. The magnitude of the threat appears too limited for wind probabilities at this time.