There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
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National Severe Storm Outlook
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FOUR CORNERS
SUMMARY
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest, with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.
Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin
Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening.
Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected.
As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete nature of the supercells, but with more numerous severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting) supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening, especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and right-moving supercells.
Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so, multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the troposphere.
