Severe Storm Risk - Kyle, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. The most likely time frame is this evening to tonight, when a few tornadoes and scattered damaging winds may occur across east Texas to southern Mississippi. Synopsis Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a gradually deepening upper wave in place along the southern High Plains into northern Mexico with a pronounced vorticity maximum approaching the upper Rio Grande Valley. Latest upper-air analyses show increasing cold advection across the southern High Plains, which will contribute to the intensification and eastward progression of the wave through tonight. At the surface, seasonally high dewpoints (low to mid-60s) continue to spread north across central/eastern TX to the south of a warm frontal zone analyzed from northwest OK to the lower MS Valley. Continued low-level warm advection and increasing ascent aloft will promote steady deepening/organization of the surface cyclone as it shifts southeast towards southern AR/northern LA by tonight. A frontogenetic Pacific cold front attendant to the cyclone will promote thunderstorm development across central to eastern TX this afternoon and into LA and southern MS overnight. Eastern Texas to Southwest Mississippi Ongoing elevated convection will continue to spread east/northeast through late morning, supported by steady isentropic ascent within the warm frontal zone and over residual cold pools from prior overnight convection. With time, this activity will become increasingly near-surface based as MLCAPE increases to around 1000 J/kg across eastern TX amid continued moisture return and filtered daytime heating. Focused forcing along the front and strong height falls aloft will promote upscale growth of initially semi-discrete cells and clusters into an organized line by early evening. The potential for severe gusts and embedded tornadic circulations should increase as this occurs - especially between 00-04 UTC across far east TX into central LA as the mid-level jet attendant to the upper wave ejects eastward along the Gulf Coast and promotes a rapid eastward surge of the front. Far Southwest Oklahoma into Central Texas Gradual clearing is anticipated through the day in the wake of morning showers and thunderstorms across central TX into southwest OK. Despite modest low-level moisture behind the primary surface front, cold temperatures aloft under the upper trough coupled with daytime heating should promote lifted indices on the order of -5 to -6 C within a largely uncapped environment. Weak ascent under/behind the upper trough will support mainly isolated convective showers/thunderstorms, but 30 knot mid-level flow may be sufficient for a few organized cells capable of producing large hail this afternoon.