Severe Storm Risk - Lafitte, LA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across multiple parts of the Midwest, as well as on a more isolated basis across the Gulf Coast, south-central Plains and northern Plains. Midwest/Great Lakes A low amplitude shortwave trough will amplify and spread east-southeastward over the Great Lakes today. While overall moisture content will remain modest, steady low-level moistening is expected ahead of a surface low/cold front, and south of a north/northeastward-shifting warm front. This moistening and insolation beneath a developing mid-level dry slot should support a corridor of modest destabilization as the mid-level cold pool (including 500 mb temperatures around -18 to -20C) overspreads the region this afternoon. This environment should become sufficient for a developing broken band of strong/severe low-topped storms including supercells, posing a risk for severe hail/damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes from mid-afternoon through early evening. Iowa/Upper Midwest late tonight A categorical Slight Risk has been introduced for what should be a steadily increasing late-night/pre-dawn potential for large hail, at least on isolated basis. This potential should tend to focus across parts of central/eastern Iowa. Exact details of timing/spatial extent of cap erosion are a bit uncertain, but will defer to a significantly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and east/southeastward-advecting elevated mixed layer and ample source-region elevated buoyancy regarding concern for large hail. This will be as robust warm/moist advection develops and initial height falls arrive into the region early Wednesday with increasing elevated convection probable. South-central Plains Near/ahead of the stalling front, boundary-layer moistening may support CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg across parts of southern Kansas into southwestern Missouri, where mid-level inhibition may remain weak enough through late afternoon/early evening to allow for isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development. Sufficient vertical shear could support supercell development. Additional severe storm development, at least on an isolated basis, is plausible farther west-southwest later in the afternoon/early evening across northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Texas Panhandle. Northern Great Plains into Midwest Models suggest that a corridor of fairly deep boundary-layer mixing will precede the vigorous short wave trough digging across and east-southeast of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Associated mid-level forcing for ascent will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered thunderstorm development with potential to produce some hail and scattered strong to severe surface gusts late this afternoon into evening. Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic Some strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur tonight as convection develop near/north of a near-coastal/offshore surface low and northward-advancing warm front. Storms will tend to be elevated inland, but modest buoyancy and strong unidirectional shear through the cloud-bearing layer could yield some hail and/or gusty winds. Gulf Coast Strengthening westerly flow, including 20-40 kt in the 850-500 mb layer, is anticipated regionally coincident with a moist boundary layer. As diurnal heating/destabilization occurs, this may support modestly organizing convection, perhaps transient supercell structures, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two.