Severe Storm Risk - Lake Apopka, FL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI SUMMARY Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early evening. Florida A very moist airmass is in place across the FL Peninsula today, with surface observations showing dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE is at or above 1500 J/kg for much of the peninsula already. A shortwave trough is currently moving into the central Gulf Coast vicinity, with continued eastward/southeastward progress expected throughout the day. The prevailing buoyancy coupled with ascent attendant to this wave will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Low-level flow is generally weak, but the shift from low-level easterly winds to moderate southwesterly aloft is supporting moderate deep-layer vertical shear. Some increased shear is possible in the vicinity of the east-coast sea-breeze, with the strongest storms anticipated near this boundary as a result. The overall expectation is for some organized multicells and a few supercells, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail, particularly across the east-central portions of the peninsula. Upper Midwest through the Mid MO Valley into southeast KS/northeast OK Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving through the Upper Midwest towards the Upper Great Lakes. Surface analysis places the low associated with this shortwave over the northern MN/WI border vicinity, with an attendant cold front extending back southwestward through northwest IA, southeast/south-central NE, and far northwest KS. A modest pre-frontal trough is in place just ahead of this cold front. The shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward, while the cold front progresses eastward/southeastward. Northern portion of this front (closer to the surface low and parent shortwave) will make notably more eastward/southeastward progress than the southern/western portion, which will move more gradually southeastward. Low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the front, but with mid 50s dewpoints currently in central OK, the extent and quality of this moisture will likely be somewhat limited. Filtered heating and mixing could also reduce dewpoints. Even so, dewpoints will likely still reach at least the mid 40s across southern WI, gradually increasing into the mid 50s across southeast KS/southwest MO/northeast OK. This is expected to be enough moisture to support a narrow corridor of modest buoyancy. Strongest ascent will be near the surface low and shortwave trough across the Upper/Mid MS Valley, supporting higher storm coverage than areas farther southwest. A few high-based storms capable of wind damage and isolated hail are possible. Farther southwest, lower storm coverage is expected, particularly from west-central IL into southeast KS. Thunderstorm chances across much of this area appear low enough to remove severe probabilities. The only exception is over the southeast KS/southwest MO vicinity. Here, greater low to mid-level moisture could still support a storm or two. Shear is strong enough to support hail with any storms that mature.