Severe Storm Risk - Leander, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS AND COASTAL/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA SUMMARY Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and gusty winds will be possible mainly this evening and tonight across parts of southwest/south-central Texas towards the middle Texas Coast, and this afternoon across coastal/southern Louisiana. Texas A mid- to upper-level trough west of northern Baja California late this morning is forecast to quickly move east reaching Chihuahua and southwest TX by daybreak Friday. Strong westerly mid to high-level flow will be maintained across the southern tier of states. Surface analysis showed a west-east oriented stalled front across south TX eastward across coastal LA and into north FL. Widespread cloud cover will limit diurnal heating today north of the boundary despite a fetch of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates being maintained across northern Mexico and over TX in the vicinity of the Rio Grande. A couple of stronger thunderstorms are possible through the early afternoon from central into parts of southeast TX (reference MCD #627 for short-term details). Farther west, ascent preceding the shortwave trough will promote scattered showers and storms developing over southwest TX late this evening with additional activity (numerous in coverage) forecast to develop/spread east towards the middle TX Coast through early Friday morning. Sufficient MUCAPE and strong cloud-layer shear will support an isolated threat for severe hail with any elevated supercells that can develop. Strong to locally severe gusts may also occur as supercells encounter greater instability across south-central to coastal TX late tonight, even if they remain slightly elevated. Coastal/Southern Louisiana A convectively reinforced surface front is draped across southern/coastal LA this morning, with thunderstorms ongoing to its north. Greater instability will exist to the south of the front across coastal LA this afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop/move across the front later today could pose some risk for locally damaging winds and marginally severe hail given weak to moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear.