Severe Storm Risk - Lewes, DE

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND PARTS OF WEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SUMMARY Scattered severe/damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible with thunderstorms from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and isolated severe gusts may also occur today across parts of west/south-central Texas. Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England On the southern fringe of upper troughing over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes, a weak/convectively augmented mid-level shortwave trough will progress northeastward across the OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, eventually reaching the Mid-Atlantic tonight. Robust daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s) ahead of a surface cold front will aid in the development of moderate instability by early afternoon. Ongoing convection across OH/KY this morning may eventually strengthen as it encounters this destabilizing airmass, and additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along/near the cold front by mid afternoon from the central Appalachians into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Stronger flow aloft will tend to lag/remain north of the cold front, but modest enhancement to the west-southwesterly mid-level flow along/near the front should support around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear. This will be sufficient for some updraft organization with mainly multicells expected, although marginal supercell structures may occur. Low-level lapse rates are expected to become quite steep through the day, evidenced by a general lack of clouds on recent visible satellite imagery from central/eastern WV into the Mid-Atlantic. This will likely aid efficient downward momentum transfer in convective downdrafts, with scattered severe/damaging winds possible as multiple clusters spread east-northeastward through the afternoon/evening. Isolated hail may also occur with the stronger cores. A Slight Risk for severe/damaging winds has been introduced from parts of WV to southern New England given increased confidence in multiple clusters traversing a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. Eastern New Mexico into West/South-Central Texas A squall line has generally moved offshore the lower/middle TX Coast this morning. In its wake, a post-frontal low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across west TX into eastern NM. Embedded within large-scale upper troughing over the Great Basin/Southwest, a low-amplitude shortwave trough over northern Mexico this morning will move northeastward across the southern High Plains by this afternoon. A relatively early start to convective development appears probable across the higher terrain of far west TX, possibly as early as 17-19Z. With a combination of moderate instability and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear forecast, supercells with mainly a large hail threat should be the primary mode initially. Additional robust thunderstorms may form later in the afternoon/early evening across a broader portion of the southern High Plains, and also pose a threat for large hail and isolated severe winds. Some potential for clustering this evening remains apparent into south-central TX, and supercells from north-central Mexico could also move into this region this evening/overnight.