Severe Storm Risk - Lexington Park, MD

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES...AND THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUMMARY Scattered strong to severe storms are possible over the central Plains and Midwest, as well as parts of New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Northeast A broad upper ridge remains in place over the Mid MS/TN Valleys, with northwest flow aloft affecting the northeast US and Mid-Atlantic states. The main baroclinic zone in this region currently extends from central NY into southern New England, with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s along and south of the boundary. This air mass is expected to destabilize through the day as temperatures warm through the 80s, leading to a zone of strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500+ J/kg) over parts of PA/NY/NJ. Ongoing convection may delay daytime heating, but eventually strong storms are expected to form in this region, spreading southeastward through the late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds are the primary concern, although some hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A lack of a more obvious upper feature to aid in large-scale forcing may limit the overall coverage of severe storms. SD/NE/MN/IA A shortwave trough currently over western CO will track quickly northeastward and affect the central Plains by late afternoon. Strong heating and a moist air mass will yield moderate CAPE over parts of SD/NE. Low-level warm advection and diurnal heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over central SD by late afternoon. Initial supercell storms are expected, capable of damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado. Storms are expected to become more numerous during the evening and grow upscale into bowing structures, with a damaging wind risk tracking eastward into parts of southern MN and perhaps northern IA. Some guidance suggests storms will maintain some damaging wind risk into central WI overnight. Southwest LA/Southeast TX Tropical Storm Eduardo is expected to strengthen today off the immediate LA/TX coast and move inland this afternoon and evening. Models continue to show limited discrete convection in the northeast quadrant of the system, suggested a rather low tornado risk today. Nevertheless, given the potential for rapid strengthening around the time of landfall, have opted for a small 2% tornado risk area for a few hours this evening.