Severe Storm Risk - Lexington, SC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS SUMMARY Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible across portions of northern Florida into Georgia and parts of the Carolinas. 20z Update MRMS VIL has depicted a weakening trend in convection across the FL Panhandle and northern FL over the past 1-2 hours as convection migrates east into a more deeply mixed/drier air mass. A downstream 18 UTC sounding from JAX sampled diminished mid-level lapse rates and increased inhibition as well, casting doubt on the potential for re-intensification across north FL through the afternoon. For this reason, 15% wind and 5% tornado risk probabilities were removed, though recent high-res guidance suggests that a strong storm or two will remain possible as the surface cold front continues to push southeast through early evening. Further northeast into GA and the Carolinas, gradual clearing has allowed temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70s amid low/mid 60s dewpoints. This is supporting modest MLCAPE values (500 J/kg or less) within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Given these trends, opted to maintain low-end wind probabilities to account for isolated strong convection capable of damaging winds. Across southern/central TX, elevated convection has shown a similar weakening trend over the past few hours. While transient stronger updrafts will remain possible given residual MUCAPE sampled by regional ACARS soundings, the recent convective trends coupled with nebulous forcing for ascent and minimal updraft/UH signal in recent CAM guidance lends enough confidence to remove 5% hail probabilities.