Severe Storm Risk - Lima, OH

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes. Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley today, as cyclonic west to southwesterly flow remains over much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an outflow boundary will advance southward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Thunderstorms will be ongoing along the boundary at the start of the period. These storms will move southward across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a wind-damage threat is expected along the more organized parts of this line. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with rotating elements embedded in the line. Further west into the southern Plains, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from east Texas into far southern Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to initiate during the mid afternoon along an east-to-west axis of low-level convergence in southeast Oklahoma. These storms are expected to move southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the Red River in far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon have MLCAPE near 3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with isolated large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to reach near 225 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with supercells. If the storms can transition into a short intense line segment, then a localized swath of wind damage may also occur. Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front will move northeastward into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.