Severe Storm Risk - Lithonia, GA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains, Northeast, and Southeast/Tennessee Valley. Midwest and Upper Great Lakes An active multi-round day of severe weather is expected across the region through tonight. Early this afternoon, ongoing severe risks will continue to focus across northern Michigan as well as eastern Wisconsin, with a secondary round of severe storms potentially spreading into Lower Michigan later this afternoon. See existing Mesoscale Discussions/Watches for short-term details. Severe potential later today will focus on a convectively reinforced boundary, with a very moist and potentially unstable environment along and south of it. Renewed deep convective development is expected later this afternoon into tonight across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, and again into Wisconsin. A ribbon of moderately strong mid-level westerlies, some of it MCV-enhanced, will support organized storm modes including supercells and fast-moving line segments and potential upscale-MCS development. Large to very large hail will be possible with the more intense storms in addition to wind, which may become more prevalent of a hazard (60-80+ mph) as storm mergers lead to a couple of strong to severe clusters developing. Some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly along the effective boundary and/or increasing this evening as a southwesterly low-level reinvigorates. Central and southern High Plains High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable airmass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail. Farther south into the southern High Plains, weaker flow will limit overall storm organization, but steep lapse rates will support severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts. Northeast Enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially across much of New York and Pennsylvania. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear quantitatively) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the afternoon, and again during the evening/nighttime hours. Southeast/Tennessee Valley Along the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the central Appalachians, easterly flow through much of the troposphere resides atop a hot/moist air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon. 12z observed soundings from Atlanta, Birmingham, and Jackson MS notably sampled 25-35 kt winds between 3-6km AGL, which could aid in storm organization this afternoon. A somewhat cooler thermal profile aloft was also noted with the 12z Atlanta sounding with a relatively steep mid-level lapse rate profile. Strong to severe pulse thunderstorms are expected regionally, and seemingly with a somewhat greater coverage and likelihood than a typical pulse-type scenario. The stronger water-loaded wet microbursts will yield localized gusts of 50-65 mph and be capable of wind damage. Montana and northern Great Basin Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a slow-moving mid-level trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding the trough, around 40 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and a weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon and evening.