Severe Storm Risk - Long Island City, NY

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUMMARY Thunderstorms capable of scattered damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of the central U.S. and Arizona. Mid-Atlantic A relatively nondescript pattern is located over the region between a Bermuda high and troughing over the Upper Midwest. Seasonably strong heating of a moist airmass (12 UTC Dulles, VA raob sampled a 14 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio) will support a destabilizing boundary layer and scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. A few thunderstorm clusters will probably evolve through the late afternoon into the early evening as this activity moves through the I-95 corridor. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (i.e., 50-60 mph) capable of scattered wind damage will be the primary threat with the stronger cores. Mid-Missouri Valley into the Lake Superior region Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving southeastward over the Red River Valley towards the Upper Great Lakes later today. In response to forcing for ascent associated with the disturbance, a couple of ongoing thunderstorm clusters will probably continue this morning. There is low confidence in the evolution of these clusters and an associated severe risk. Nonetheless, as a cold front continues to push southeast across the Upper Midwest later today, additional storm development is likely but details are nebulous at this time. Model guidance indicates a greater overlap of CAPE/shear may focus across western IA later this afternoon. Will re-evaluate in subsequent outlook updates for whether a mesoscale corridor can be identified with a locally greater severe risk within the larger Marginal Risk denoting isolated hail/wind potential. Southern High Plains into the Ozarks Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast NM into the TX Panhandle this afternoon. Relatively high uncertainty remains regarding storm placement removed from the higher terrain of northeast NM. Regardless, ample heating of an adequately moist but deepening boundary layer will support a thermodynamic profile favoring severe gusts with the stronger cores and associated outflow. Further east into OK, KS, and the Ozarks, ongoing elevated storms from northern OK into eastern KS are likely rooted near the base of the EML. This activity will probably diminish in spatial extent through midday, but it is possible additional storms will develop along the outflow and could yield localized strong/severe storm potential. Will defer severe highlights at this time due to low predictability. Arizona Latest convection-allowing model ensembles and MPAS guidance imply some risk for widely scattered storms to develop over the Mogollon Rim and the higher terrain in southeast AZ and gradually spread into the lower deserts this evening. Given the steep lapse rates preceding this potential convection and possible scenario, have introduced low-severe wind probabilities. Nebraska/South Dakota Elevated convection is expected to develop across portions of northern NE and southern SD during the overnight hours tonight as isentropic ascent increases in tandem with a modest intensification of a low-level jet. Low-level moistening through 850 mb under a plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates should promote adequate buoyancy for a few robust updrafts (though confidence in storm coverage is limited due to the weak nature of the forcing for ascent). However, strong shear across the region will likely promote organized convection, including a supercell or two, capable of producing large hail.