Severe Storm Risk - Loris, SC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORDIA PANHANDLE SUMMARY Widely scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are possible today across southeast Alabama, and portions of south Georgia and north Florida, including the Panhandle. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible in parts of the Carolinas, as well as the lower Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas. Southern AL/Southern GA/FL Panhandle into northern FL Regional radar imagery shows showers and thunderstorms ongoing from far eastern LA northeastward into southern GA. These storms are occurring along and ahead of a cold front that extends from a surface low over northwest GA southwestward into the western Gulf. The environment preceding this front is moist, modestly buoyant, and strongly sheared (i.e. 50 to 70 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear). These conditions are supporting occasional intensification of the updrafts embedded within the predominately linear structures. This trend is forecast to continue for at least the next few hours before the stronger low-level flow (which currently extends from the western FL Panhandle/southern AL through southern GA) gradually shifts northeastward. As such, the greatest tornado potential will exist during the first few hours of the forecast period. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard as storms progress southeast through the central/western FL Panhandle and northern FL. Carolinas Buoyancy is expected to be lower here than areas farther southwest, with poor lapse rates expected to limit instability to generally less than 500 j/kg. The surface low over northwest GA is forecast to shift northeastward throughout the day, with low to mid-level wind fields strengthening at the same time. Ascent near the low and associated front coupled with the modest buoyancy will result in occasionally deeper convective elements along and ahead of the cold front from late morning into afternoon. Robust deep-layer wind fields across the region will support the potential for damaging gusts with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX A few isolated thunderstorms have developed east of Del Rio where steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting elevated buoyancy atop a stable boundary layer (as observed on the 12Z DRT sounding). This elevated buoyancy will likely persist throughout the day, combining with strong deep-layer vertical shear (i.e. effective bulk shear from 50 to 60 kt) to support the potential for supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Additionally, there is a low-probability chance for a few storms farther south into the Lower RGV this evening, where the environment remains supportive of large hail.