Severe Storm Risk - Manning, ND

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THIS EVENING AND IOWA TONIGHT SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and tonight across multiple parts of the Midwest, as well as on a more isolated basis across the Gulf Coast, south-central Plains and northern Plains. 20z Update Wisconsin and Michigan to Illinois and Indiana Beneath the cold core of the clipper, steep mid-level lapse rates and weak buoyancy are supporting scattered thunderstorms. While available MUCAPE is somewhat limited (500-750 J/kg) 500 mb temps near -20C are supportive of marginally severe hail with the stronger cores. This threat should end by evening as buoyancy declines with the loss of diurnal heating. Have expanded the 5% hail across Lake Michigan into the UP and eastern WI shores. Southern portions of the Level 2 Slight risk were also expanded into eastern IL where robust convection is expected along the cold front this afternoon and evening. Hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible. MT and northern Plains into the Midwest tonight Ahead of the strong belt of mid-level flow ahead of the upper trough moving out of Canada, afternoon model guidance remains bullish on several rounds of strong and occasionally severe storms late tonight into early Wed. However, CAPE will be rather weak, which should limit overall convective organization. Isolated severe gusts remain possible. The upstream convection will eventually intersect with a rapidly moistening air mass across parts of IA and the Midwest. This will likely result in a cluster of more robust severe storms near daybreak across SD, IA and MN at the nose of a 50+ kt 850 mb jet. Increasingly strong vertical shear from the upstream trough/jet will support supercells or elevated bowing segments capable of hail and severe wind gusts by 12z Wed. Have connected the MRGL areas over the northern Plains into the Midwest. Southern and central Plains Strong heating along the stalled front initially over the southern and central Plains could result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening. Increasing vertical shear and low-level moisture advection could favor some risk for hail with supercells. However, warm temperatures aloft and only modest large-scale forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm development/maintenance this evening. Should a supercell or two become established, large hail and damaging gusts would be possible before ending overnight.