Severe Storm Risk - Mansfield, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE SUMMARY Widely scattered severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night from northeast Texas into western Tennessee, with the main threat centered over Arkansas. The strongest storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. More isolated strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Northeast. Northeast TX into the Mid-South Regional radar imagery shows a cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving across central/northeast AR. Outflow associated with this cluster stretches from north of LIT northwestward between FSM and FYV into northeast OK. Surface analysis also places a low over western OK. A cold front extends east-northeastward from this low through far northeast OK and southern MO, and a dryline extends southwestward from the low through the Permian Basin. These boundaries, particularly the cold front and outflow boundary, could act as a focal points for redevelopment as the airmass across the region destabilizes amid heating and low-level moisture advection this afternoon. A combination of afternoon temperatures in the low 80s, dewpoints in the mid 60s, and steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg) within the warm sector this afternoon. Convergence along the front will be modest and large-scale height rises are anticipated. Some weak capping may prevail as well, particularly if the current cloudiness persists. These factors introduce notable uncertainty into the forecast, particularly regarding overall storm coverage. Seemingly, these factors should contribute to a widely scattered, but discrete, storm mode. The placement and evolution of the outflow may become apparent as heating begins, with observable trends in cloud cover possible as well. These factors could potentially reveal a corridor of higher storm coverage. However, confidence in the placement of such a corridor is currently low, precluding the introduction of any higher probabilities. That being said, the kinematic environment should be very supportive of supercells this afternoon/evening, with strong upper flow resulting in bulk shear around 60 kt. Any storms that do mature should be severe and capable of all hazards. Large to very large hail (i.e. 2"+) is possible early in each storm's convective cycle. Tornadoes are also possible, particularly from central AR into western TN where the low/mid-level flow will be strongest. A strong tornado is possible with a sustained discrete supercell. Storms may eventually grow upscale into clusters, at which point damaging winds would become the primary severe risk. Lower Great Lakes into northern New England Early morning surface analysis placed a low over southeast Lower MI, along a cold front that extends from central Quebec southwestward through southern IL. This low is forecast to progress northeastward along the St. Lawrence Valley vicinity as the cold front also progresses eastward in response to an eastward shift of the parent cyclone from northern Ontario into northern Quebec. Modest low-level moisture will advect northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast ahead of this cold front, with low 50s dewpoints likely reaching as far north as ME. This low-level moisture coupled with afternoon temperatures in the 70s will support modest buoyancy, despite poor lapse rates. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of the eastward-progressing front as it moves into the destabilized airmass from the Lower Great Lakes into northern ME. Strong deep-layer vertical will be in place, supported by relatively deep southwesterly flow, suggesting the potential for organized storm structures. However, this flow will be largely parallel to the boundary, with a bowing linear mode expected to be dominant (as shown by much of the convection-allowing guidance). Damaging gusts will be possible with the strongest storms, although transient updraft strength should keep the overall coverage and intensity modest. Isolated hail is possible with a few storms as well. Predominantly linear mode should keep the tornado risk low, although a low-probability threat still exists, particularly if a pocket of strong buoyancy can develop across Upstate NY.