Severe Storm Risk - Maryland Heights, MO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY SUMMARY An isolated risk for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado will continue tonight from the Ozark Plateau eastward into the low/mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. 01z Update Midlevel jet is forecast to strengthen in excess of 100kt as it translates across central IL late this evening. As this speed max shifts into lower MI the associated short-wave trough will advance into the upper Great Lakes region by 09/12z. Latest satellite imagery suggests the leading edge of large-scale ascent is shifting east of the MS River and this appears to be aiding a narrow band of weak convection immediately downstream from southeast MO to northeast IL. This activity has struggled to deepen/organize, though some increase appears plausible given the approaching trough. Strong height falls favor some upscale growth, but 00z sounding from ILX exhibited only modest lapse rates with meager MUCAPE. Despite the weak thermodynamic profiles, wind fields are very strong and favor organized rotating updrafts. Will continue MRGL risk for the aforementioned corridor as large-scale support is very favorable. Late tonight, scattered convection is expected to increase across the lower MS Valley. With large-scale forcing remaining well north of this region, the prospect for organized severe will be somewhat negated. Even so, some risk for strong gusts and perhaps a tornado will be noted with the most robust storms.