Severe Storm Risk - Mason City Junction, IA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SUMMARY A few severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of Minnesota/Wisconsin this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds will be possible. MN/WI Morning water vapor loop shows fast west-southwesterly flow aloft across the central/northern Plains into the Midwest. A couple of shortwave troughs are noted - one fast-moving trough over eastern WY, and a second lower-level trough over central KS. These features will track into the Midwest states by afternoon, aiding in the development of scattered thunderstorms. Forecast hodographs are impressive with strong low-level veering/increasing winds with height and 1km SRH values in the 200-300 m2/s2 range. Wind fields would be conditionally favorable for supercells and tornadoes, but the thermodynamics are the primary forecast uncertainty. Low-level moisture across the region is quite limited at this time, but strong southerly low-level winds ahead of the approaching troughs will help dewpoints to rise to near 60F across southern MN. Forecast soundings suggest this is barely sufficient for surface-based storms. The corridor most likely to see a few intense storms would be from central MN into northwest WI, mainly from 20-01z. Storms may transition to fast-moving bowing structures in WI, with a risk of damaging winds if they can remain surface-based. IA/NE Isolated thunderstorm development is also possible southward along the cold front into southwest IA/eastern NE. Storm coverage in this area will be low, but any storm that persists could pose a risk of hail. Southeast NM/Far West TX An isolated strong thunderstorm is possible again today along/east of the Guadalupe Mountains of southeast NM. Forcing is weak and overall confidence is not high enough for severe probabilities. Nevertheless, a storm or two could pose a risk of hail later today.