Severe Storm Risk - Mayville, WI

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO SOUTHWESTER MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA CORRECTED FOR MISSPELLING SUMMARY Widespread severe gusts are possible across South Dakota late this afternoon and into portions of southwestern Minnesota and northwest Iowa through the evening. 20 Update Northern Plains/Midwest Confidence continues to increase in widespread severe gusts developing across parts of central and eastern SD late this afternoon and into the evening. Very hot surface temperatures (100-110F) are supporting very steep-low and mid-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km over western SD. Initial storms developing now with temperature-dew point spreads of 40-50 F will favor efficient outflow generation and an increasing potential for severe gusts as convection develops and intensifies this afternoon. The primary severe concern across the northern Plains and Midwest remains the potential for widespread severe wind gusts with one or more organized convective clusters. A CIG-2 wind area was added for the potential for some peak gusts in the 80-100 mph range. Some recent CAM guidance has trended toward more clustering and a compact bowing cluster across central and eastern SD late this afternoon and evening. A brief mesovortex tornado or two may also occur if a bowing cluster can develop. However, weaker overall synoptic forcing suggests lower confidence in how widespread the most intense storms will be. See MCD#1729 for short-term information. Downstream, wind probabilities and CIG-1 have been expanded along a surface wind shift/buoyancy gradient into parts of northeast NE, IA and southern MN. Recent HRRR/RRFS time-lagged runs continue to show a strong cluster moving east and then southeastward this evening and into the overnight hours. Strong to severe gusts will remain possible with these storms given the large buoyancy. Farther north across MN, isolated storms, including supercell structures could support isolated hail or damaging gusts this evening. MT Scattered to widespread high-based storms remain likely this afternoon and evening over central and southern MT. Steep-lapse rates in the lowest 3-5 km will support a risk for severe gusts. Some clustering may occur as storms spread eastward into this evening. No changes were made to the outlook, see the prior discussion.