Severe Storm Risk - Minneapolis, MN

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into tonight across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Supercells with very large hail and strong tornadoes are possible initially this afternoon, before one or more bowing clusters leads to a greater threat for severe/damaging winds this evening. Synopsis Large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS should further amplify today as an embedded mid-level jet and associated shortwave trough move from the West Coast to the Four Corners region through the period. A broad zone of around 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow will persist today from the southern/central High Plains to the Upper Midwest, with multiple small-scale perturbations forecast to advance northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a low over western KS this morning is expected to gradually develop northeastward towards the KS/NE border vicinity this evening. A dryline trailing from this low will mix eastward through late afternoon peak heating across the southern/central High Plains. A warm front will attempt to lift northward today across NE/IA into southeast SD and parts of southern MN, while a cold front is forecast to gradually advance southeastward across the northern/central Plains through the period. Southern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest Initial thunderstorm development appears likely across eastern CO this afternoon in a low-level upslope flow regime. This activity will likely become supercellular and capable of producing large to very large hail given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and moderate instability. By 20-22Z, additional robust convection is expected to develop along/near the cold front across north-central NE/south-central SD in a rapidly destabilizing airmass. There is still some uncertainty with how far north the warm front and related rich low-level moisture will reach across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, especially given ongoing convection and related outflow this morning across NE/IA. Still, an increasing large hail threat remains evident with any convection that develops along/near the cold front this afternoon, as ample MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts, including supercells initially. A strong tornado threat will exist with any of these supercells that can become/remain surface based, as low-level shear strengthens through the late afternoon/early evening. A greater threat for severe/damaging winds should develop as convection quickly grows upscale into bowing clusters this evening. The northeastward extent of this severe wind threat remains a bit uncertain, especially into southern/central MN where the warm front is forecast to reach. A risk for embedded QLCS tornadoes may continue with the surface-based portion of the cluster. Thunderstorm initiation farther south along the length of the dryline appears somewhat conditional given modest large-scale ascent. But, most guidance continues to show at least isolated high-based convection developing by late afternoon across parts of north-central KS southward into the eastern TX Panhandle/western OK. Any thunderstorms which can be sustained will pose a threat for large to very large hail and tornadoes, especially across KS where a 40-50 kt southerly low-level jet will enhance 0-1 km shear. A strong tornado appears possible this evening with any supercell that can persist, although there should be a tendency for upscale growth into a severe wind producing cluster with time as the cold front overtakes the dryline. Great Lakes/Lower Michigan Recent radar and visible satellite imagery show an MCV associated with earlier convection across the central Plains is present over IA this morning. This feature is forecast to track east-northeastward today, and should approach eastern WI and Lower MI by late afternoon/early evening. Modest enhancement to the low/mid-level wind field should exist in close proximity to this MCV, and the surface warm front is expected to gradually develop northward across these regions through the day. Some intensification of convection is possible this afternoon/evening along and near the warm front, with sufficient instability and shear to support a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado. A Slight Risk has been added for parts of Lower MI given increased confidence in this scenario occurring. Southeast On the western periphery of a surface high centered over the western Atlantic, diurnally maximized thunderstorm development should focus from the southern Appalachians across GA and the interior/western FL Peninsula. Even though deep-layer shear will remain weak, a favorable thermodynamic environment with steepened low-level lapse rates should support strong to pulse-severe type convection capable of producing isolated wind damage/downbursts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Central and North Texas/ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley A fairly robust cap is expected to remain across the southern extent of the warm sector today, with minimal/nebulous large-scale ascent over the southern Plains. Still, some guidance suggests elevated thunderstorms may develop through peak afternoon heating across parts of northeast TX into the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley in a persistent low-level warm advection regime. If this occurs, then isolated severe hail and damaging winds would be possible given the strong MUCAPE forecast. Mid-Atlantic Mid-level ridging should build over the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon, which should tend to suppress most convection. However, a weak mid-level perturbation noted in water vapor imagery this morning over OH may support isolated convective development this afternoon across parts of MD/PA and vicinity. The overall environment does not appear overly favorable for organized severe thunderstorms, but gusty winds could occur with any of the stronger cores that may develop.