Severe Storm Risk - Moberly, MO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE LOWER AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible today from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid Mississippi Valley. Synopsis A midlevel cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will continue to slowly deepen today as it lifts northeast toward the upper Midwest. An associated surface cyclone over northeast Kansas this morning will lift northeast into eastern Iowa during the day before pivoting north then northwestward overnight as it occludes. At the same time, an attendant surface baroclinic zone will push east across the southern Plains today, with an appreciable moist plume on the east side of the baroclinic zone. Morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced shortwave trough entering the basal region of the longer-wave trough in which the midlevel cyclone resides. As this shortwave trough exits the basal region later today, it will take on an increasingly negative tilt and southerly midlevel flow above the Lower and Mid-Mississippi valleys will be sustained. In response to the evolving mid- and upper-level kinematic fields, the low-level jet will be sustained and move northeast, tied to the progress of the negatively tilted trough. East Texas toward the Lower Mississippi Valley Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning within the broad moist plume ahead of the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Within this moist plume, weak midlevel lapse rates and a modest low-level theta-e airmass has held instability in check today -- generally less than 1000 J/kg. Given low-level moisture trajectories, widespread cloud cover ahead of the advancing baroclinic zone, and weak lapse rates upstream of the region, instability should not really recover much today. That said, low-level and large-scale forcing for ascent will continue to support convection through the afternoon and into the overnight hours. The strength of the kinematic fields will yield some tornado/wind potential within the various convective bands -- especially where any low-level instability can develop. Additionally, transient supercell or supercell-like thunderstorms may develop ahead of the line within the broad warm-air advection regime. These shallow, but rotating, thunderstorms will also pose at least some potential for tornado/wind damage as well. This threat should continue into the overnight hours across portions of western Tennessee and western Kentucky, especially if a zone of more discrete showers/thunderstorms can develop within the nocturnal low-level jet. Mid-Mississippi Valley As the surface-low deepens this afternoon and evening, strong low-level wind fields will be maintained or even strengthen, yielding ESRH on the order of 250-350 m2/s2. As strong southerly midlevel flow is sustained in response to the approaching midlevel shortwave trough, effective-layer shear in excess of 50 knots will be maintained or overspread much of the region. This far north, instability will be even more limited than compared to areas farther south. However, convergence along the surface front and large-scale ascent from the midlevel wave will support bands of forced convection during the day and into the evening. The strong kinematic fields may be sufficient to offset the meager buoyancy and support a potential for isolated tornado/wind damage.