Severe Storm Risk - Montour Junction, PA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS SUMMARY A couple of damaging gusts remain possible across the northern Appalachians this evening, and an instance or two of hail/wind may accompany one of the stronger storms in Deep South Texas. Synopsis A pronounced mid-level trough continues to progress eastward over the Great Lakes, with surface lee troughing prevalent over the Appalachians and points east. A cold front continues to sweep eastward across the OH/TN Valleys into southern TX, preceded by enough buoyancy to support mainly general thunderstorms. A couple of stronger thunderstorms may still occur over the northern Appalachians and far southern TX. PA into the southern Great Lakes Ahead of the surface cold front, scant buoyancy (e.g. a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE) remains in place per regional 00Z observed soundings. Most of the CAPE is constrained in the 850-600 mb layer, which may support a few strong low topped cells within bands of convection, aided by strong low-level shear, as shown by the soundings. 0-3 km SRH remains in the 200-300 m2/s2 range. As such, while the severe threat is expected to remain sparse at best given poor buoyancy, the strong low-level shear suggests that an additional damaging gust cannot be completely ruled out. Deep-South Texas Multicells continue to propagate southward ahead of a cold front, where ample buoyancy remains in place. While vertical wind shear is poor, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven by 70 F dewpoints beneath 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates (per the 00Z BRO observed sounding), indicates the potential for a sparse severe hail/gust instance before storms dissipate in the next few hours.