Severe Storm Risk - Mooretown, CAN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUMMARY Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States today into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes are possible as well. Tennessee/Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Recent satellite imagery reveals a shortwave trough moving quickly southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes region, embedded within the upper troughing that covers much of eastern Canada and extends down into the Ohio Valley. Moderate mid-level flow accompanies this shortwave, with wind speeds greater than 50 kt sampled around 500 mb on the 12Z ILX, DTX, ILN, and PIT soundings. The strongest flow was sampled at ILX and DTX, and the expectation is for this stronger flow to spread eastward today, moving in tandem with the progressive shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing downstream of this shortwave, with the highest coverage along and near the pre-frontal trough in Ohio. Recent surface analysis reveals a somewhat complex boundary structure, with a wavy warm front, a diffuse pre-frontal trough, and a cold front. Primary warm front appears to extend west-to-east from southeast Ohio across southern Pennsylvania and into northern New Jersey, far southern New York, and extreme southwest Connecticut. The cold front arcs southwestward from northern Lower Michigan through central Illinois and central Michigan. Highest overall coverage is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front this afternoon through this evening, with additional development expected farther east (from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia) along the lee trough as well. Highest buoyancy is expected along the western periphery of the cold front from central into western Kentucky, where mid to upper 70s dewpoints are anticipated amid temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s. Strong buoyancy is still anticipated across Ohio as well. Robust thunderstorm development is expected along the front. Vertical shear is robust enough for supercells, but linear forcing along the front and strong downdraft production will likely lead to quick upscale growth. In either convective mode, damaging gusts (with speeds from 55 to 70 mph) will be the primary risk, with brief tornadoes as a secondary threat, and large hail tertiary. Farther east, a similar convective environment exists, although with slightly less buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear. A more outflow-dominant multicell mode is anticipated across the central Virginia vicinity, with a trend towards a more organized mode possible with northern extent. Primary risk will be damaging gusts, including a few around 65 to 70 mph. A somewhat confined corridor of greater tornado potential exists from the Hudson Valley vicinity into western Massachusetts/Connecticut as the warm front lifts northward. Here, enhanced vorticity along the boundary coupled with stronger low-level southerly flow could support a few brief tornadoes. Great Basin Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the Great Basin today, supported by strong diurnal heating/mixing and moderate mid-level moisture along the western periphery of the upper ridging centered over the central Rockies. A few strong updrafts/downdrafts are possible, with an attendant risk for strong to severe (i.e. 50 to 65 mph) wind gusts. Gulf Coast Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to continue to drift west-northwestward over the northern Gulf tonight from off the coast of the Florida Panhandle toward the southern Mississippi/southern Alabama coast. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details. A strong low-level wind field will approach these coastal areas later today and tonight. However, as is typical for a westward moving tropical cyclone, forecast SRH should remain relatively modest inland. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles (aside from the rich boundary layer moisture) and limited SRH over land, any Bertha-related mini-supercell potential is expected remain offshore.