Severe Storm Risk - Moreland, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TEXAS INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE SUMMARY Widely scattered severe storms are possible this afternoon through this evening from north Texas, much of Arkansas, and into western Tennessee. Large to very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. 20z Update The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. Recent GOES imagery shows gradual clearing across northern TX into northwest LA and western AR with slow warming/moistening noted in surface observations. A stable layer remains evident in visible imagery across western AR, and a recent 18 UTC SHV RAOB sampled a stronger capping inversion at 850 mb compared to what is depicted by latest high-res guidance. This casts some uncertainty on convective coverage across southwest AR; however, trends in time-lagged ensemble guidance and early high-res WoFS solutions continue to show reasonably high confidence in thunderstorm development along and north of the I-40 corridor in AR and downstream into northern MS, middle TN, and northwest AL later tonight. Although storm mode will likely transition to clusters and embedded semi-discrete cells after 06 UTC, some severe threat will likely persist into the early morning hours given adequate buoyancy and ample deep-layer wind shear. The eastern extent of the 5% wind/hail contours have been adjusted accordingly. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below and recently issued MCD #646 for additional details.