Severe Storm Risk - Murphy, NC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...EASTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUMMARY Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible today over parts of the Carolinas, eastern Georgia, and southern Arizona. Isolated hail and a few severe gusts may occur in the western Great Lakes. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from parts of the southern Plains into the Southeast. Carolinas/Georgia A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Southeast into the Carolinas, where surface dewpoints will be in the 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop over most of the region by midday. A cold front will advance southward across southern North Carolina, reaching northern South Carolina in the afternoon. Low-level convergence will become maximized along and ahead of the front, which will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. These storms will move eastward toward the Atlantic Coast. Additional storms will form in the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations. RAP forecast soundings near and to the south of the front late this afternoon have MLCAPE maximizing in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and 0-6 km shear around 20 knots. This environment will be favorable for multicell line segments capable of severe wind gusts. Southern Arizona A sufficiently moist airmass will be in place today over southern Arizona, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. By afternoon, an axis of maximized low-level convergence and instability will develop in southeast Arizona. Scattered thunderstorms will form near this axis and move westward across southern Arizona from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads and very steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts. Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley A cold front located from southern Oklahoma eastward into north-central Mississippi will advance slowly southward across the region today. Ahead of the boundary, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the mid 70s F will contribute to moderate destabilization over much of the warm sector. Scattered thunderstorm will form along and to the south of the front during the afternoon. The instability along with steep low-level lapse rates will be sufficient for isolated strong to severe gusts with any line segment that can become organized. Western Great Lakes Mid-level northerly flow will be in place today over the western Great Lakes. At the surface, a southwest-to-northeast corridor of low-level moisture will be located from eastern Minnesota into western Upper Michigan. Moderate to strong instability will develop near the moist axis by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain limited, isolated convection could initiate near the moist axis if low-level convergence becomes strong enough. In that case, a cell or two could form and move southward into the stronger instability late this afternoon. The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could support an isolated severe threat, with hail and strong wind gusts possible.