Severe Storm Risk - Nassau Bay, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS SUMMARY Scattered large hail (some 2+ inches) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts (isolated 75+ mph) are expected this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central to central Texas. A couple of tornadoes also appear possible across parts of west-central Texas along/near a front. Texas into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley Severe potential today will be complicated by ongoing thunderstorms along/near the Red River and a convectively reinforced outflow boundary across the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley. In general, a favorable setup for scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds remains apparent this afternoon/evening across parts of west-central into north TX to the south of current convective activity, along with the potential for large to very large hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes with initial supercells that may develop. Recent surface analysis shows a low over northwest TX, with a dryline extending southward to the Big Bend region. A cold front arcing northeastward from the low across western north TX into southern OK and western/northern AR will likely serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorm development this afternoon. The observed 12Z FWD sounding sampled the pre-convective airmass well, with steep mid-level lapse rates atop a rather moist low-level airmass aiding MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg. There is some uncertainty regarding airmass recovery with eastward extent towards the ArkLaTex given a notable outflow boundary from earlier convection noted on latest visible satellite imagery extending from north-central to east-central TX. Still, this boundary seems to have stalled recently, with mostly clear skies to its north across northeast TX ahead of ongoing thunderstorms in north-central TX. Current expectations are for moderate to strong instability to develop this afternoon as diurnal heating occurs across west-central to north TX, with the greatest instability focused south of the cold front/outflow and east of the dryline. Stronger west-northwesterly mid-level flow associated with a southeastward-moving shortwave trough may tend to remain displaced along and slightly to the north of the cold front through the day. Still, sufficient overlap of modestly enhanced mid-level winds and related deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern portions of the warm sector in TX. This shear should support some supercells with initial development, particularly across parts of west-central into north-central TX. Large to isolated very large hail (2+ inches) may occur with these supercells, before convection quickly grows upscale into an intense bowing cluster. A narrow zone of tornado potential is also apparent with the supercells across parts of west-central TX near the sagging front, where low-level shear will be locally enhanced by east-northeasterly near-surface winds. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds are expected across much of central TX after this mode transition occurs. With ample instability and a highly organized cold pool expected, some of these gusts could exceed 75 mph on a localized basis. The severe/damaging wind threat should continue through the evening as the bowing cluster spreads south-southeastward across much of TX. Eventual weakening is forecast late tonight into early Monday morning, although at least an isolated damaging wind threat may persist into south/coastal TX through the end of the period. Lower confidence in organized severe potential exists with eastward extent into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley, as ongoing cloud cover and outflow from earlier convection may inhibit diurnal heating and the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. Still, some chance for redevelopment remains apparent along/east of the cold front, so severe hail/wind probabilities have been maintained with adjustments based on current observations and latest short-term guidance. Central New Mexico into Far West Texas Low-level orographic ascent with the surging cold front should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across central NM into parts of far west TX this afternoon and evening. Cool temperatures aloft will aid in the development of weak instability, even with limited low-level moisture. Around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear should foster organized updrafts, with the strongest cores capable of producing isolated hail and occasional severe/damaging winds. Florida Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the stalled front this afternoon across the northern FL Peninsula, and southward along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass, with MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg, should support water-loaded downdrafts capable of producing locally damaging winds. Sufficient deep-layer shear may also foster sufficient updraft organization for isolated hail with the more robust cores. Mid-Atlantic Strong to locally damaging winds may occur with high-based convection that forms on the Appalachians/Blue Ridge this afternoon and subsequently spreads east-northeastward along/ahead of a cold front. While instability will remain weak, a deeply mixed boundary layer should encourage gusty downdraft winds to reach the surface in a narrow corridor where a Marginal Risk has been introduced.