Severe Storm Risk - New Laguna, NM

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SUMMARY Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of New Mexico and far west Texas today. Synopsis An upper trough over the western US and Rockies is forecast to become increasingly fragmented as the primary vort max lifts northeastward from the northern Rockies into southern Canada. Southern portions of the main trough will be reinforced by an upper-level cyclone emerging from northern Baja, forecast to deepen modestly as it moves over the Desert Southwest. Relatively strong southwesterly flow aloft will precede the southern stream low extending eastward across New Mexico and west/southwest Texas. At the surface, a cold front will move southward across the Plains trailing from a deepening surface low in southern Canada. A much weaker surface cyclone is forecast to develop over the Four Corners. A relatively moist air mass will be enhanced by weak height falls, and the developing surface cyclones, which should gradually strengthen south-southeast winds in the lowest 1-2km AGL. Southwest and Four Corners Initial ascent from the approaching upper low will begin to overspread the Four Corners relatively early in the forecast period. Despite cooler surface temperatures, the moist air mass and steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) for storm development/intensification as early as 12-13z. As wind fields aloft strengthen (40-50 kt EBWD), at least an isolated risk for hail may materialize. More robust storm development is expected to gradually occur east of a weak surface trough later in the diurnal cycle as destabilization increases across south-central NM into northern Mexico and Far West TX. MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg amidst modestly veering, but elongated hodographs promoting organized clusters and supercells. Large hail (1-2 inches) will be possible given the degree of buoyancy and cooler mid-level temperatures. The most likely corridor for larger hail may be confined to the greater instability reservoir across southern portions of the risk area. While low-level shear will remain on the weaker side, at least some curvature in the lowest 1-2 km of model hodographs could support an isolated tornado risk with the more strongly rotating storms. Eventually, the meridional nature of the upper-level flow and increasing storm coverage should favor a transition to more cluster/linear storm modes into the evening across southern NM and West TX. Severe gusts will be possible, though eventually convection should weaken as it encounters a more stable and drier environment farther east. Northeast NM and southeast CO The surface cold front is forecast to move southward over the Plains through the day. Ahead of it, low-level upslope flow will maintain modest surface moisture sufficient for weak destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the frontal zone and across the higher terrain through the afternoon. While weak buoyancy should temper overall intensity, veering wind profiles could support occasional intensification of some clusters. A low-end risk for severe gusts or isolated hail is possible.