Severe Storm Risk - New Market, MN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN SUMMARY Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds today across parts of the Upper Midwest, central Plains, from Texas into portions of the Southeast, and across parts of the Sierra into the northern Great Basin. MN/WI A fast moving shortwave trough over ND will track southeastward into the upper Midwest today. 12z model guidance is in general agreement that a pocket of modest CAPE will develop this afternoon over central MN in a region of broken clouds and rapidly cooling mid-level temperatures. This will likely lead to scattered thunderstorm development, with storms tracking into western WI before weakening this evening. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong westerly flow aloft. Given the strong large scale ascent, a few relatively low-topped supercells are possible with large hail being the main risk. A small SLGT risk has been added for this scenario. East TX into the Southeast A very moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today across much of east TX and LA into southern MS/AL/GA and north FL. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and strong heating will lead to MLCAPE values of over 3000 J/kg across much of this broad area. This will lead to diurnally driven thunderstorms later today into this evening. Steering flow and vertical shear are weak across the region, suggesting slow-moving and rather disorganized convection. Nevertheless, the strongest cells will pose a risk of water-loaded downdrafts and occasionally gusty/damaging winds. Eastern NC A remnant tropical circulation is moving across NC and will be offshore by mid-afternoon. Until then, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the stronger-sheared environment across the Outer Banks region. Refer to MD #1197 for further details. KS/NE/CO/NM Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in a zone of low-level warm advection over southwest NE and track into northern KS. Steep lapse rates and sufficient shear for rotating storms could pose a risk of large hail in the strongest cores. Other more widely scattered convection will develop southward into eastern CO/western KS/northeast NM, where gusty/damaging wind gusts are possible. NV A very deeply-mixed boundary layer will develop this afternoon over much of northern NV/northeast CA, along with enough CAPE for high-based thunderstorms. Strong mid/high-level winds and favorable thermodynamic profiles could result in a few storms capable of damaging wind gusts.