Severe Storm Risk - Newdale, ID

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IOWA...AND IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUMMARY An isolated severe risk is forecast later today into the evening for the Carolinas into northern Georgia, Iowa, parts of the central High Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West. Carolinas/Northern Georgia A cluster of weak thunderstorms ongoing this morning over KY-WV near a surface front will continue southward via northerly steering flow on the eastern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Ark-La-Tex. A weak upper impulse associated with this activity may influence a rejuvenation of storms near the leading edge of convective outflow across the VA/NC border vicinity. As the boundary layer heats to the south of the front, other scattered storms are expected to develop over the Piedmont into northern GA this afternoon. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50 to 60 mph) capable of wind damage may occur with the stronger thunderstorm cores. Iowa Surface mesoanalysis this morning places a front draped from the lower OH Valley westward into the mid MO Valley with an accompanying weak surface low over western NE. Seasonably moist low levels (lower 70s F surface dewpoints) are south of the boundary across the lower OH Valley west-northwestward into eastern NE. The boundary is forecast to gradually advance north-northeastward through IA during the period driven by a persistent belt of 30+ kt flow via a southwesterly 850 mb jet, thereby maintaining a corridor of low-level warm-air advection across the area. Model guidance signals higher probabilities for thunderstorm activity over IA into far southern MN where low-level forcing and heating will locally erode convective inhibition. Although marginally severe gusts will probably be the primary hazard, enlarged hodographs near the warm front may yield a localized risk for a couple of weak, short-lived supercells [longer-lived supercell structures limited by weak (20-kt) flow above 500 mb]. Upscale growth into a larger convective system may occur during the late evening into the overnight, but will likely become increasingly displaced from appreciable buoyancy as it moves towards the southwest Great Lakes. Intermountain West A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West today. Southwest flow aloft will be in place ahead of the trough over much of the region. At the surface, dewpoints in the 50s F are expected from northern Utah into valleys of western Wyoming, where the RAP is forecasting MLCAPE to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings show moderate deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid-level trough. As low to mid-level lapse rates become steep in the late afternoon and early evening, isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible. Central High Plains Radar mosaic and water-vapor imagery this morning show a convectively enhanced, mid-level vorticity maximum moving north-northeast over central NM. This disturbance is forecast to possibly influence storm development later today into this evening in a primarily post-frontal regime over the central High Plains. Ample heating of the boundary layer over eastern CO into adjacent portions of southwest NE/northwest KS will precondition an environment as initially isolated to widely scattered storms potentially grow upscale into a small, eastward-moving cluster this evening. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger outflow surges with this activity.