Severe Storm Risk - Nipomo, CA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF ARIZONA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a couple tornadoes, and damaging winds remain possible tonight across parts of Arizona and the Southwest. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast. Southwest Evening water-vapor imagery showed a deep upper low off the southwest CA coast, with a plume of mid-level Pacific moisture advecting into the Southwest and Four Corners. Several shortwave perturbations were evident within the broader cyclonic flow, with the most substantial of these moving northward from the coast of Baja California. As the upper low drifts eastward, strong mid-level flow will continue to overspread much of the Southwest through tonight. At the surface, continued southerly flow has allowed surface dewpoints to remain quite moist from the lower deserts toward the Mogollon Rim. While surface temperatures are cooler, especially with northward extent where numerous storms have occurred, the very moist conditions and steepening mid-level lapse rates beneath the advancing cold core will continue to support weak to moderate buoyancy (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) through the overnight hours. Ongoing supercells will likely persist given increasingly strong southerly wind fields ahead of the upper low. Elongated and mostly straight hodographs will favor supercells with effective bulk shear values of 55-65 kt. Additional storm development, focused mainly across south-central AZ, remains possible given the upslope flow and the approach of the shortwave trough from Mexico late tonight into early Thursday. With supercells expected to be the primary storm mode, large hail will be the primary risk. However, severe gusts and a couple tornadoes also remain possible given some low-level hodograph curvature and local terrain influences. The primary axis of convection should gradually shift eastward across AZ into southwest NM with the upper low into early Thursday morning. Coastal Central/Southern California The prominent cyclone approaching the central CA Coast will continue eastward moving onshore tonight. Cool mid-level temperatures beneath the low and modestly moist surface conditions are supporting weak buoyancy. A low-topped line of convection along the primary cold front will approach the coast this evening/tonight. While updrafts may struggle to reach sufficient depth for charge separation and lightning production given weak buoyancy, enhanced flow and low-level shear may support an isolated risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado through the overnight hours along the CA coast.