Severe Storm Risk - North Street, MI

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA SUMMARY Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected tonight from the southern Plains to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. 01z Update Large reservoir of MLCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg extends across the southern Plains through the mid MS Valley into northwest Indiana. Latest surface analysis depicts a weak surface low near the IA/MO/IL border, lifting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. A very sharp warm front extends across northern IL into lower MI and this will serve as the demarcation for surface-based convection through sunrise. Scattered supercells have developed along and just south of the warm front, immediately ahead of the surface low. This aligns with earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for potentially strong tornadoes along with very large hail. 00z sounding from ILX strongly supports this with very steep lapse rates and strong instability. Additionally, 0-3km SRH is on the order of 300 m2/s2. This activity will spread/develop east/northeast along/near the warm front, as currently depicted by the Moderate Risk. Farther southwest across the central Plains, isolated severe supercells are developing along the cold front across northwest MO-south central KS. These storms should gradually increase in areal coverage later this evening as they advance downstream as LLJ is forecast to increase across eastern OK into central MO. Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low over northeast Mexico/far west TX. This feature is beginning to open up as it ejects northeast. Leading edge of large-scale ascent has overspread the dry line, and earlier supercell activity is beginning to evolve into a linear MCS from the Edwards Plateau into portions of northwest TX. This activity should continue to grow upscale as it spreads downstream, as strengthening LLJ across central TX will support ongoing organization. 00z soundings from both FWD and OUN exhibit very steep lapse rates, strong 0-6km shear, and strong instability and this strongly suggests the potential for longer-lived supercells and QLCS.