Severe Storm Risk - Oakland, MN

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA SUMMARY Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley Several convective clusters are ongoing across the region this morning, including one over western NE/northwest KS, another over SD, and another over IA/southern MN. Evolution of these clusters and their respective outflows will likely play a role in the location, timing, and intensity of thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Currently the outflow from the southern MN/IA cluster arcs from east-central IA back southwestward through extreme southwest IA and far southeast NE before intersecting the outflow from the western NE/northwest KS cluster (which continues into northwest KS). Much of the guidance suggests airmass recovery occurs north of this outflow. Precipitation and associated cloud cover are currently in place over western/central NE, but this cluster and its cloud cover are quickly eroding from the west, matching trends within the guidance and suggesting that there should be sufficient time for airmass recovery across NE. Strong to very strong buoyancy is anticipated south of the remnant outflow boundary, fostered by temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s). Thunderstorm development is forecast along this boundary, with the initial, more cellular storms capable of large to isolated very large hail. Strong downbursts are possible as well. Late afternoon thunderstorm development is possible farther west from western SD into the NE Panhandle as well, fostered by a combination of low-level convergence and modest large-scale forcing for ascent. Less buoyancy is forecast here versus farther east, but it will still be sufficient for robust updrafts, particularly across NE where moist easterly low-level flow is anticipated. Moderate vertical shear will likely support an initial supercell mode, with large to very large hail and damaging gusts possible. A brief tornado is also possible. Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is expected towards the evening, especially as the low-level jet increases in the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant gusts of 75+ mph, particularly from eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Lower Great Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley into the northern Mid-Atlantic A pair of convectively augmented vorticity maxima, one over IA and the other entering southern Lower MI, are forecast to progress eastward within the moderate westerly flow aloft extending across the region. Very warm and moist low-levels will support airmass destabilization ahead of these vorticity maxima, resulting in afternoon thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will be relatively weak but the moderately unstable and moist air mass will still support the potential for a few strong/severe clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. Western KS into OK/TX Panhandles Isolated supercell development will be possible near the dry line forecast to extend from western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Forcing will be weak in this region, but moderate buoyancy and vertical shear could result in a few instances of large hail and severe wind gusts. TN Valley and northern GA Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow across the region will be weak but a very moist and unstable airmass amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for wet downbursts.