Severe Storm Risk - Old Coloma, AL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM EASTERN IOWA TO VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts will be possible today from the eastern Iowa/northern Illinois vicinity into parts of the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. Areas of severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible over parts of the northern Plains. IA to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast An uncertain and inherently complex forecast is apparent this morning from IA east-southeastward into the central Appalachians. An impulse embedded within west-northwest flow and an overnight MCV moving into IA from NE appear to be aiding in MCS development this morning over eastern IA, with this thunderstorm complex moving into northern IL through the late morning. While the exact evolution of a potential severe MCS moving across the Midwest is uncertain, a possible scenario is the thunderstorm activity over IA either merges with additional storms developing ahead of it or it continues to intensify into the main severe-wind producing MCS. Another severe cluster is located over eastern IN within the eastern envelope of the EML. Considered higher wind probabilities to be delineated this outlook update, but it remains unclear regarding sequential details that would lead to a high-confidence mesoscale corridor of severe wind and associated wind damage. Nonetheless, environmental parameters (e.g., very rich moisture, steep 700-500 mb lapse rates, adequate deep-layer shear) will strongly favor the development of mature/severe linear clusters/bows with the more intense storms that eventually evolve today. This activity will likely move along a large CAPE gradient that will likely be reinforced by early morning convection. Scattered severe gusts (60-85 mph) will be likely in the favored mesoscale corridors with swaths of concentrated wind damage. A lower but appreciable severe risk may extend into VA and NC with a lower severe threat with south extent into SC/GA. Northern Plains East/southeasterly flow along the surface trough is forecast to maintain 60s F dewpoints across the western Dakotas and parts of NE this afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the relatively moist boundary layer, and strong heating will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability across the western Dakotas. Scattered storms are expected by early evening amid supercell wind profiles. Elongated hodographs favorable for splitting cells with an accompanying risk for large to very large hail are forecast. Isolated severe gusts also could occur. Given the lack of a stronger low-level jet during the nighttime hours, it appears unlikely that upscale growth will occur, and convection is expected to wane with eastward extent overnight. Mojave Desert of CA Early morning radar imagery shows an MCV moving slowly northwest over the lower CO River Valley and this feature is likely associated with a weak disturbance moving northwest into southern CA. The airmass across the desert will undergo strong heating in wake of early day cloud debris. Another likely convectively augmented mid-level impulse will move across southern AZ towards southern CA today. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon amid a seasonably moist airmass and an inverted-V thermodynamic profile is depicted in forecast soundings. Isolated severe gusts are possible with the more intense downdrafts.