Severe Storm Risk - Omar, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OHIO INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW YORK STATE SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two remain possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes and middle/upper Ohio River Valley region this afternoon through early evening. Other more isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the the Tennessee Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley, and central/east/south Texas. 20z Update Great Lakes Region A band of thunderstorms ahead of the eastward progressing cold front will continue across northern OH this afternoon before moving into western PA and southwest NY this evening. Diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates amid fairly strong, but unidirectional flow aloft will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts. A brief tornado also remains possible with any rotating elements, especially near the southern shores of Lake Erie near the stalled warm front/lake boundary. Have trimmed severe and thunder probabilities behind the front over IN where the risk has decreased. TN Valley to the Southeast and South TX Ahead of the southern portions of the cold front, a warm, moist, and unstable air mass will support widespread thunderstorm activity from parts of the TN Valley, Southeast and into South TX. In the absence of steep mid-level lapse rates and stronger vertical shear (especially with southward extent), storm organization should be transient and limited. Still, the moist environment and some veering winds the lowest few km could support an occasional stronger or briefly rotating storm. Any clustering could support occasional damaging gusts or small hail with stronger updrafts near the front. The outlook remains valid with only minor adjustments to the western extent of thunder and severe probabilities.