Severe Storm Risk - Onalaska, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS SUMMARY Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are expected to continue this evening into tonight across southern and eastern Oklahoma into north Texas. Isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across the Ozarks, south Texas, and the ArkLaTex across the Gulf Coast states. OK into north TX As of 0030z, three distinct clusters of severe storms (with embedded supercell structures) are ongoing near and to the south of I-44 in OK, with recent reports of hail up to 2.50-2.75". The 00z OUN sounding sampled the inflow air mass to the ongoing storms with steep low/mid-level lapse rates supporting moderate instability with around 50 kt of deep-layer shear. The ongoing storms are expected to continue southeast, with a sub-set of the current activity potentially moving into north TX by 03z. Large hail will remain the predominant hazard, with the damaging wind threat being more conditional on the development of an organized cold pool. For additional, short-term guidance, see the recently issued MCD 675. ArkLaTex to north Florida As of 00z, widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across far south GA and north FL in the vicinity of a stalled front. The air mass to the south of the front remains moderately unstable with estimated MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. The current KJAX VWP is sampling around 50 kt of effective bulk shear, which coupled with the instability will remain supportive of locally strong wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail for the next couple of hours. Elsewhere, isolated storms are ongoing across parts of the Sabine River Valley, aided by a low-level warm advection regime, per regional VWPs. Short-term model guidance suggests that storms will increase in areal coverage over the next several hours in the ArkLaTex vicinity as the region is glanced by a short-wave trough passing to the immediate north. Gradual upscale growth into a forward-propagating QLCS appears possible, with the system moving into central and southern parts of LA and MS by 12z Saturday. Initial storms are likely to be somewhat elevated. However, with time the storms may become more progressively rooted within a moistening boundary layer returning north through the region. Generally weak lapse rates are expected to limit severe-weather coverage and intensity, with isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds appearing possible. South TX A short-wave trough over southwest TX into Chihuahua, Mexico this evening will continue east tonight with downstream height falls/forcing for ascent progressively overspreading south TX. Visible satellite and mosaic radar data indicate gradually increasing convection across the high terrain of northeast Mexico, and there is some signal in model guidance that isolated storms could cross the Rio Grande into south TX overnight. The 00z DRT sounding sampled a fairly strong cap centered around 1.5 km AGL, which may initially prohibit storm development. With time, dynamic cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated storms to move into the region with an attendant large hail and damaging wind threat.