Severe Storm Risk - Oracle, AZ

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES SUMMARY Thunderstorms capable of producing scattered severe/damaging winds and a few tornadoes will become a concern across much of New Mexico into the southern/central High Plains from late this afternoon through tonight. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur with convection across parts of Arizona this afternoon and evening. 20z Update No changes are needed this outlook cycle. Regional radar shows a broad area of precipitation continuing to overspread much of Arizona, associated with the lead short-wave trough. Thus far, this convective activity has remained sub-severe, though some enhancement in reflectivity and lightning activity is starting to occur along the leading edge in southeast AZ. The downstream airmass across portions of New Mexico has remained relatively clear, allowing for modest destabilization (500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) amid ample deep-layer shear. Given these observational trends, the expectation for a broken/low-topped line of thunderstorms emerging across eastern AZ into western/central NM by 20-00Z remains on track. In the wake of this activity, some clearing can be noted in southwest Arizona where a pocket of 500 J/kg of MLCAPE has emerged. An isolated severe wind and tornado threat remains possible if storms are able to redevelop in this region.