Severe Storm Risk - Oregon, IL

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail, damaging winds (possibly 75+ mph), and tornado risk remain likely from the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes southwestward into Nebraska, mainly late this afternoon and tonight. 20Z Update Upper Midwest No changes were made to the prior outlook. Severe storm development remains likely this afternoon and evening as a very warm air mass continues to destabilize. Weak, but sufficient, synoptic ascent (evident in visible imagery) should aid in removing inhibition by late this afternoon. Initial supercells developing over northeastern MN and far northern WI will pose an all-hazards risk, including locally severe wind gusts, very large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. An MCS should eventually develop and track south/southeast across WI and MI with a risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two through tonight. NE More isolated higher-based convection remains possible from central and eastern NE, into western IA, and southeast SD late this afternoon and evening. Very hot surface temperatures and moderate buoyancy will support a few stronger storms with damaging wind and isolated hail potential. Convective development appears most probable along a thermally induced surface pressure trough, from central NE northeastward late this afternoon. Mid MS Valley A very unstable and weakly capped air mass is present along a diffuse differential heating zone from northwest IL, into northern TN. Current expectations are for one or more clusters of thunderstorms to develop along the boundary and ahead of a weak mid-level wave/MCV across IA/IL, before spreading south/southeastward into this evening. The extreme instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear should support organized clusters, and eventually an MCS, with damaging winds likely. A tornado or two is also possible with initial convection along the boundary owing to extreme buoyancy, or any embedded QLCS circulations with the expected MCS. See MCD#1742 for short-term information. Elsewhere, isolated damaging gusts remain possible with scattered thunderstorms over the northern Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. Weaker buoyancy/shear overlap suggests these occurrences will be more sporadic, with limited storm organization/longevity. See the prior discussion for additional information.