Severe Storm Risk - Oregon, IL

There is a Moderate Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...FAR EASTERN IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUMMARY Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, including far eastern Iowa, northern Missouri, northern/central Illinois, southern Wisconsin, Lower Michigan, and northern Indiana. This includes the potential for widespread/intense damaging winds (some 75+ mph), large hail, and several tornadoes, some of which may be strong to intense. Midwest/Great Lakes An active and impactful severe weather event is still expected across parts of the Midwest Great Lakes later this afternoon and evening. Ongoing bowing cluster across southeast IA/northwest IL/southwest WI and vicinity may continue to pose at least some severe wind and embedded QLCS tornado threat as it continues east-northeastward across parts of the Midwest this afternoon. There is still airmass recovery underway ahead of this activity, especially into central/northern IL, northern IN, and parts of southern Lower MI where strong heating is occurring. Enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly winds associated with a potent shortwave trough over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will overspread the developing warm sector this afternoon, and support organized severe potential, including the possibility of multiple tornadic supercells and widespread severe/damaging winds. Even so, greater than usual uncertainty exists regarding redevelopment later today on the southern/western flank of ongoing convection across northern IL into northeast MO and vicinity. A gradual increase in both low-level and deep-layer shear is anticipated across this area as a 30-40+ kt southerly low-level jet develops eastward in tandem with the eastward-ejecting shortwave trough and mid-level jet. A mix of supercells and bowing segments appears probable as renewed thunderstorms develop along/ahead of the surface cold front this afternoon in a strongly unstable and rather favorably sheared environment. If at least semi-discrete supercell structures can be maintained, then potential exists for several tornadoes, and multiple strong to intense tornadoes (EF-2/3+) given the enhanced low-level shear. Isolated large to very large hail may also occur with any sustained supercells. Otherwise, numerous to potentially widespread severe/damaging winds also appear likely through the period across parts of northern/central IL into southern Lower MI and northern IN. Both the ongoing cluster and eventual upscale growth of convection that develops this afternoon will likely produce severe/damaging winds, some of which could be significant (75+ mph). The northern extent of the severe risk into WI and northern Lower MI remains uncertain, but at least some wind and/or tornado threat will likely continue with eastward extent into the southern Great Lakes and northern IN this evening. Eastern Kansas/Southern Missouri into the Southern Plains Additional thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon and evening along the trailing cold front into portions of eastern KS/southern MO into the southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast to lag behind/to the north of the cold front. Still, around 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear and moderate to strong instability will support marginal supercell structures and loosely organized multicells capable of producing both large hail and damaging winds. A large component of boundary-parallel shear will likely lead to clustering and messy convective modes through the evening before thunderstorms gradually weaken with the loss of daytime heating. Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians Recent visible satellite imagery across much of the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians shows mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with ample low-level moisture present per latest surface observations and area 12Z observed soundings. Large-scale ascent associated with multiple low-amplitude mid-level shortwave troughs will likely support the development of widely scattered thunderstorms by afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the central Appalachians. Though deep-layer shear is forecast to remain modest, moderate to strong instability will exist with continued diurnal heating this afternoon. This will support stronger updrafts capable of scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps isolated hail. Multiple clusters should eventually emerge, with potential for organizing along outflow/cold pools, and more focused corridors of damaging winds possible across parts of the I-95 corridor from northern VA to eastern PA and NJ.