Severe Storm Risk - Oregon, WI

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MONTANA AND SOUTH DAKOTA SUMMARY Storms with scattered severe wind gusts are possible across parts of Montana and South Dakota this afternoon and evening. Montana to Dakotas A prominent upper ridge will persist over much of the Southwest/central CONUS through tonight, with very hot temperatures expected this afternoon from Montana into the Dakotas. Isolated to scattered storms within the hot and well-mixed environment will result in a broad area of at least isolated severe-wind potential. For parts of western/central Montana, convection that develops by early/mid afternoon near the high terrain is expected to spread eastward. This convection may be aided by a low-amplitude mid-level vort max moving around the periphery of the upper ridge. Increasing storm coverage and gradually strengthening mid/upper-level flow may allow for one or more outflow-driven clusters to develop and spread east-northeastward into early evening, with a threat of severe wind gusts. Localized gusts of 75+ mph cannot be ruled out, especially if deeper convection is able to spread into areas where very deep mixing and heating to near/above 100 F occurs prior to storm arrival. Farther east, very strong heating is expected across parts of western/central South Dakota, with temperatures in some areas potentially rising to near/above 105 F. Low-level moisture will be relatively sparse, but MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg will be possible where 50s F dewpoints can be maintained within the well-mixed environment. Initial storm development near the Black Hills will quickly become outflow dominant as it spreads eastward, with an increasing threat of severe gusts as storms tend to increase and potentially modestly organize as outflows aggregate. Some guidance depicts development of a persistent cluster or loosely organized MCS that moves eastward across South Dakota along a weak surface boundary. Should this occur, a corridor of more organized severe-wind threat (with gusts potentially near/above 75 mph) will be possible this evening. Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes Conditional severe potential exists across parts of the Upper Midwest spanning Minnesota to Upper Michigan, although confidence regarding storm coverage and timing remains very low within the weakly forced environment characterized by generally rising upper heights. As morning stratus thins/erodes, moderate to strong destabilization is possible along/south of a surface front that is forecast to extend from northeast North Dakota into northern Minnesota/Wisconsin by late afternoon. Impressively long hodographs with effective shear of 50+ kt will be more than sufficient for storm organization, but most guidance remains rather muted regarding potential for diurnal storm development. If storms are able to develop during the afternoon or evening, then a threat for hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could evolve. Even if diurnal storm development is limited, at least isolated vigorous elevated storms may evolve within a warm-advection regime near/north of the front late tonight, which would pose a threat for hail and perhaps locally damaging wind. Northeast Nevada/northern Utah/eastern Idaho Storm development is expected during the afternoon across parts of northeast Nevada, along the western periphery of the upper ridge. These storms will spread into adjacent parts of southeast Idaho and northwest Utah with time. Strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible with these storms as they move northeastward within a well-mixed environment. South-central/southeast Arizona High-based convection is again expected across southeast Arizona during the afternoon, with initial downburst potential. A modest enhancement to easterly flow along the southern periphery of the upper ridge may allow for localized strong to severe wind gusts to spread westward into parts of south-central Arizona, before convection weakens tonight.