Severe Storm Risk - Otsego, MN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND A SMALL PART OF LOUISIANA SUMMARY Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota this evening into tonight. Isolated damaging wind gusts will also be possible over parts of the northern Rockies into northern High Plains, Louisiana, and the southern Mid-Atlantic. Upper Mississippi Valley Recent trends in radar data indicate the coalescing of individual thunderstorms into a broader-scale cluster east of Fargo. The impingement of the cold front on that convection should foster further morphology into more of a line configuration with bowing characteristics late this evening into tonight, which is supported by latest convection-allowing model guidance. The 00Z ABR sounding sampled steep lapse rates, which were largely contributing to MLCAPE of around 3000 J/kg in the absence of a more moist boundary layer. The steep lapse rates and resultant top-heavy CAPE profile in conjunction with the drier low-level environment are expected to enhance cold pool development with damaging winds becoming the predominant severe weather hazard. Localized gusts as high as 70-75 mph are possible as the convective system advances into central MN. Additional more isolated storm development is possible along the western flank of the MCS in eastern SD, where more sporadic large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible. Louisiana Radar data indicate a cold pool attendant to a bowing storm complex now becoming displaced downstream from the parent updrafts, which should lead to the continued weakening of the MCS. Farther south, a brief uptick in thunderstorm development and associated damaging wind threat is possible over the next hour or so near and west of Alexandria where two outflow boundaries are expected to collide. Northern Rockies into Central High Plains Evening water vapor imagery shows a short-wave trough moving through ID into western MT with an attending belt of stronger mid-level flow overspreading southern MT and northwest WY, per latest objective analysis. The glancing influence of that feature, coupled with orographic ascent, may still yield a few storm clusters late this evening into tonight in south-central and southeast MT and northeast WY, where isolated severe gusts will be possible.