Severe Storm Risk - Pamplico, SC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS ITO THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SUMMARY Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible this afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast. Synopsis Upper pattern across the CONUS this morning consists of western ridging and eastern troughing. A pair of shortwave troughs are embedded within the parent trough, one moving through the middle OH Valley and the other farther south across TX. A convectively generated vorticity maximum moving across the western Gulf precedes the TX shortwave. Farther west, a shortwave trough is moving through the northern periphery of the upper ridging over northern MT and adjacent southern Saskatchewan. Recent surface analysis places a low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity, with a cold front extending southwestward through the Southeast and southern AL through the far western Gulf into Deep South TX. Another low exists farther northwest over southern Saskatchewan, with a cold front extending south-southwestward from this low across eastern into south-central MT. Eastern SC/Far Southern NC Regional radar imagery shows isolated thunderstorms currently ongoing near the surface low over the eastern NC/SC border vicinity. A modest increase in buoyancy is anticipated ahead of these storms over the next few hours. This buoyancy coupled with strong shear could result in a few bowing segments capable of damaging gusts. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is anticipated late this afternoon as the weak cold front moves eastward across SC. Moderate buoyancy and shear will support the potential for a few more robust/organized updrafts capable of isolated hail and/or damaging gusts. Eastern FL Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula, with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing gusty/damaging winds and hail. Northern/eastern ND into eastern SD Despite limited low-level moisture, modest buoyancy may develop late this afternoon/early this evening amid cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing mid-level moisture. This buoyancy will develop atop a deeply mixed boundary layer, supporting the potential for strong gusts if any updrafts can deepen/mature. Given the weak and elevated nature of the buoyancy, developing a mature updraft capable of lightning will be difficult and the current expectation is for most of this activity to be shallow and non-lightning producing. That being said, gusty surface winds are possible with any convection does develop atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Coastal LA/MS/AL The convectively generated shortwave trough over the western Gulf mentioned in the synopsis (and associated surface low) are expected to progress eastward throughout the day, while the stronger shortwave trough back across TX also progress east-southeastward. Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow will be maintained north of the Gulf low, increasing low-level convergence along the slow-moving frontal zone. This convergence will be augmented by ascent attendant to the TX shortwave, with numerous showers and thunderstorms likely. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, although moderate deep-layer shear could support a few deeper, more organized updrafts. Primary risk over this area is heavy rain (as noted in the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as well.