Severe Storm Risk - Peachtree Corners, GA

• Severe Storm Risk

  Tue 09:00 AM - Wed 08:00 AM

  There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SUMMARY Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts should be the main threats. Southern/Central Plains Stronger westerly flow aloft should remain confined to the northern tier of the CONUS today, and to the north of the surface warm sector. Multiple weak mid-level disturbances may drift eastward across the southern/central High Plains through this evening, with fairly modest mid-level flow for late April standards. At the surface, a front will extend from parts of the Upper Midwest to southwest KS near a weak surface low. A dryline will extend southward from this low over the southern High Plains. Some eastward mixing of the dryline is forecast by late afternoon, especially across the OK/TX Panhandles. Otherwise, little movement of the front is anticipated through this evening. Both of these surface boundaries should provide some focus for convective development this afternoon and evening, even with large-scale forcing for ascent remaining rather nebulous. Weak to locally moderate instability should develop through the afternoon with diurnal heating of a partially modified Gulf airmass. Even though west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to remain fairly modest, weak low-level winds gradually veering/strengthening with height though mid/upper levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear for some updraft organization. A mix of widely spaced supercells and multicells may eventually develop along both the front and dryline, with uncertainty remaining rather high about favored locations for robust convective development. Regardless, this activity could pose a threat for isolated to scattered large hail given steep lapse rates aloft. Any clusters that can evolve through the late afternoon and evening may also have some severe wind threat given steep low-level lapse rates. Some trimming was made to the northwest extent of severe probabilities based on the forecast position of the front/dryline later today. Southeast to the Carolinas A weak front draped southwest to northeast is forecast to move little today across the Southeast. Generally modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow is expected to prevail, with slightly stronger winds aloft forecast over the Carolinas. This should tend to limit deep-layer shear and convective organization/intensity. Still, with some destabilization forecast and fairly cool temperatures aloft, any clusters of convection that can develop along/south of the front may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing greater thunderstorm coverage this afternoon across parts of AL into northern GA, have connected the two Marginal Risk areas with this update.