Severe Storm Risk - Plainville, CT

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUMMARY Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States today into tonight. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected to be the most common impact, but some tornadoes are possible as well. Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast A broad area of 40-50-kt mid-level west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a large-scale trough amplifies and shifts across the northeastern CONUS. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an eastward-moving cold front across the Ohio Valley and along a pre-frontal trough over the Mid-Atlantic. In the base of the trough, a convectively augmented mid-level impulse moving from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic may also serve as a focus for convective development. Severe thunderstorm potential could increase relatively early today across parts of Ohio into Pennsylvania and western New York. Diurnal heating within cloud breaks, combined with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints, will support at least moderate surface-based instability across the broad pre-frontal warm sector. The most favorable overlap of this instability and 40-50 kt of effective shear is expected from the lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, where a mix of organized clusters and supercells should evolve and spread eastward through the day. Swaths of damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard, though severe hail will also be possible with any initial/sustained supercells. Additionally, a gradually strengthening and expanding 30-kt low-level jet will contribute to clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, and a few tornadoes may occur. This supercell related-tornado potential may focus along the warm front into parts of the Northeast, and with semi-discrete development later today focusing along the lee trough/edge of higher terrain, although low-level shear/SRH will be moderate in most of the open warm sector as well. Mid-South and the Tennessee Valley Greater instability is expected southwestward into portions of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley, although somewhat weaker deep-layer shear (around 30-40 kt of effective shear) may temper storm organization compared to areas farther northeast. Nevertheless, widely scattered thunderstorms capable of organizing into multicell clusters and occasional supercell structures will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail ahead of the cold front during the afternoon into evening. Gulf Coast Tropical Storm Bertha is expected to continue to drift northwest then westward over the northern Gulf tonight from off the coast of the Florida Panhandle toward the southern Mississippi coast and coastal southeast Louisiana. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details. A strong low-level wind field will approach these coastal areas later today and tonight. However, forecast SRH should remain relatively modest inland with marginal thermodynamic profiles aside from the rich boundary layer moisture. Any Bertha-related mini-supercell potential is expected to focus offshore in the open Gulf waters.