Severe Storm Risk - Red Bay, AL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUMMARY Large hail (some in excess of 2 inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) will be possible this afternoon/evening across parts of central and north Texas. More sporadic occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible farther east into the lower Mississippi Valley, portions of the Florida Peninsula, and central New Mexico into far West Texas. TX Morning water vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough digging southeastward across CO. This feature will emerge into the Plains this morning and track into OK/TX by this afternoon. Large scale ascent ahead of this trough has led to multiple clusters of thunderstorms overnight across OK and north TX, reinforcing cooler/stable air down into north-central TX. While some recovery of the air mass is expected, the primary surface boundary will likely extend across north TX by early afternoon. Strong heating to its south, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s and steep mid level lapse rates will yield strongly unstable CAPE (MLCAPE ~2500 J/kg) from the Abilene area south/eastward. Thunderstorm development will occur first along/north of the primary boundary and the organizing surface low over west TX. Initial storms will likely be supercells capable of very large hail and a few damaging wind gusts. Model solutions are consistent in developing a large bowing cluster of storms that tracks across north-central TX through the evening. These storms will pose a risk of more widespread damaging wind and hail potential across the ENH risk area. Activity is expected to weaken overnight as it approaches the TX middle Gulf Coast.