Severe Storm Risk - Reubens, ID

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUMMARY Widely scattered severe storms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are possible over portions of the central and southern High Plains this afternoon and evening. More isolated occurrences of damaging wind are possible from the middle Texas coast into Deep South Texas, the eastern Carolinas, and parts of the Columbia Basin into the northern Intermountain region. Central/southern High Plains including western Kansas Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast in the vicinity of a High Plains surface front and dryline this afternoon with temperatures reaching the mid 90s to around 105 F. The hot temperatures will combine with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates to yield a narrow axis of moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg across western Kansas southward into western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. Forcing for ascent preceding a shortwave trough is expected to contribute to isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon from the vicinity of the thermal low in southeast Colorado to along the front and dryline from northeast Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Forecast soundings along the front feature a vertically veering wind profile with 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be sufficient for at least episodic supercell structures with a risk for large hail. In contrast, the storms forming in the hot, deeply mixed air mass west of the boundary are more likely to produce sporadic severe wind gusts. A corridor of more concentrated severe wind gusts may materialize across portions of southwest Kansas by evening, particularly if organized cold pool development occurs with an evening time low-level jet increase. Middle Texas Coast to Deep South Texas As Bertha continues westward over the northwest Gulf, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow will precede Bertha and spread atop a hot and moist boundary layer inland, with moderate instability developing by afternoon along the middle Texas coast. Similar to Wednesday, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon within an environment characterized by 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear, steep low-level lapse rates, and high PW content. As such, the potential will exist for locally damaging downburst winds as storms spread west-southwestward along the coast into Deep South Texas during the afternoon and evening. Columbia Basin/northern Intermountain West Weak height falls are expected while mid/upper-level winds strengthen regionally ahead of an upper low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. Daytime heating along favored terrain, in conjunction with the glancing influence of the passing disturbance, will aid in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon within a moderately unstable and steep lapse rate environment. The strengthening upper-level winds will enhance vertical shear, supporting the potential for some storm organization with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail. Eastern Carolinas A very moist air mass and cloud breaks to the south of front-associated convection early today across North Carolina should allow for at least moderate destabilization across parts of the coastal plain. This may result in a corridor of more concentrated thunderstorm development, near the intersection of the outflow from the morning storms with the sea-breeze boundary. Modest deep-layer shear will coincide with steepening low-level lapse rates and high PW content to yield locally intense wet microbursts capable of damaging winds this afternoon until around sunset.