Severe Storm Risk - Rising Fawn, GA

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST SUMMARY Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. OH Valley/Appalachians through late evening A surface cyclone now in southeast Lower MI will move northeastward across the lower Great Lakes/Saint Lawrence Valley and deepen, in advance of an amplifying northern-stream shortwave trough now over the upper MS Valley. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s into OH/western PA/WV as of midday. Clouds/convection have been prevalent this morning across OH/western PA in advance of a subtle MCV, and the warmer surface temperatures have been confined to areas immediately south of this morning convection. Additional thunderstorm development is expected by early afternoon from southern IN/northern KY into southern OH/WV/western PA, and storms will spread generally eastward within the warm sector through this evening. SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and wind profiles with long low-level hodographs will support of a mix of line segments and supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes and swaths of damaging gusts before the threat begins to diminish by late evening. Southeast TX to MS/AL through tonight Thunderstorms are ongoing along a surface trough approaching southeast TX, and additional convection extends northeastward along a residual outflow/differential heating zone into the Ark-La-Miss. Daytime heating/destabilization and forcing for ascent downstream from a midlevel trough (now over the Edwards Plateau) will support a continued increase in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from southeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss. Though regional soundings are limited in the main part of the moist sector this morning, surface observations and model forecast soundings suggest a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) through the afternoon in advance of the ongoing storms. Deep-layer southwesterly shear, largely oriented along the convective band, will help maintain clusters and line segments, though embedded supercells are also possible. Low-level hodographs will be long enough to justify the potential for a few tornadoes with embedded circulations and/or favorable storm mergers into the band of storms. Otherwise, wind damage will be the main threat with the line segments through tonight.