Severe Storm Risk - Saginaw, AL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS SUMMARY Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians. An isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts is forecast over parts of the Texas South Plains later today. Southeast/Southern and Central Appalachians Recent radar and satellite imagery reveals a trio of MCVs over the OH Valley, with perhaps another MCV farther southwest in the Mid-South vicinity. These vorticity maxima are north/west of an arcing cold front that extends from southern VA west-northwest into northern KY and then back southwestward through northern AR and central OK into the TX South Plains. A moist airmass persists south of this boundary, with dewpoints in the low 70s across much of Southeast, TN Valley, and Carolinas. The front is forecast to slowly shift southward today, interacting with the moist, diurnally destabilized, and moderately buoyant airmass to support scattered thunderstorms. Vertical shear will be weak, and largely multicellular, outflow-dominant storm mode is anticipated. Even so, ample moisture is in place (i.e. PW values over 2" sampled on the 12Z BMX sounding), and sporadic stronger downdrafts may yield a strong to locally severe gusts (50 to 60 mph). Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected from southeast TN and northwest GA through northern AL into central/southern MS and eastern LA. TX South Plains into north-central/northeast TX Western periphery of the front described in the previous section intersects a weak low over far southeast NM. A moist airmass exists along and south of this boundary, with dewpoints ranging from the low 60s over the TX South Plains to the low 70s across much of central and eastern TX. Easterly flow will help maintain this moisture amid strong heating over the TX South Plain vicinity, contributing to airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy by this afternoon. Low-level convergence along the front (and/or residual outflow) and near the surface low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be modest, but any stronger, more persistent thunderstorms may yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts before dissipating during the evening. A secondary area of higher thunderstorm coverage appears likely over northeast TX this afternoon/evening. Here, differential heating and/or outflow from ongoing thunderstorms could result in an area of increased low-level convergence within a warm, moist, and moderately unstable airmass this afternoon. Isolated water-loaded downbursts capable of producing damaging wind gusts are possible. Anticipated limited severe coverage precludes introducing low wind probabilities in this area.