Severe Storm Risk - San Antonio/Stinson Municipal Arpt, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms with a potential for large to very large, tornadoes and severe wind gust will continue this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex. Additional severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the central Plains. Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex A low-amplitude mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from east-central Kansas southward into west-central Oklahoma. At the surface, a moist airmass is located over the eastern part of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Tex, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 60s to the mid 70s F. The RAP shows strong instability across north Texas and southern Oklahoma, with MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. Scattered severe storms are ongoing near an instability maximum that is near the Red River north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The RAP is also showing very steep mid-level lapse rates over southern Oklahoma and far north Texas. 700-500 mb lapse rates are estimated to be in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable for large to very large hail. Hailstones of 2 to 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, a low-level jet is analyzed from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma. The low-level jet has not strengthened as much as was originally forecast, but is still expected to gradually ramp up over the next few hours. This will increase low-level shear maintaining a tornado threat. The RAP still increases 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range within a couple of hours, suggesting that a potential for strong tornadoes will continue. A wind-damage threat is also expected to be maintained this evening into the early overnight period, as a severe convective cluster moves southeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex. Concerning the placement of the Moderate, it appears that severe threat coverage will be more limited north of I-40. For this reason, the northern extent of the Moderate Risk area has been trimmed. Central Plains Water vapor currently shows a subtle shortwave trough moving into the mid Missouri Valley and another one moving into the central High Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass is located from central and eastern Kansas into far southeast Nebraska, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Across this area at mid-levels, flow is generally from west to southwest at 30 to 40 knots. This is creating sufficient deep-layer shear for organized severe storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for isolated large hail. Severe wind gusts will also be possible.